Quote from: Dabs on Today at 12:41:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 14, 2021, 07:49:19 PM

Ok.,, but not too many people are waking up out of a 9 year coma.... .. so the scenarios for just leaving the BTC sit do not seem to be too likely for anyone who does not have a decent amount of other resources.. and not even suggesting that there would be very much value to bat around our differing perspectives in probabilities in this direction. In other words, I am not really inclined to play around with how likely one scenario is or another scenario, but surely we can describe a scenario and then describe how to treat such a scenario.... and the more relevant fact of this matter (even assuming that 750 BTC was all that he had in the world) would be that the guy had $22 million in value and severed off $3 million in value, and still seems to be a bit much to say that he is going to treat the $3 million in one way and then let the other $19million grow or divide it up or whatever.. just a bunch of grasping at speculation, even if there are a variety of ways to attempt to consider the whole matter including how much to spend and even to create a plan into the future of 65 years or even some other kind of way of planning. gosh sounds like the plans of a corporation if we are considering 65 years into the future... or some kind of lucky young peep who happens to be able to employ a lot of deferred gratification..

Well, we know he didn't need to touch it for 9 years, and he took care of the keys so he could move it at the current time. People who would have been into bitcoin 9 years ago most likely didn't need the money as it was no way for anyone back then to profit from immediately.

Someone bought pizza for 10k coins ...

He couldn't have possibly predicted he'd have $24 million today. Maybe he did? He didn't need the coins for 9 years, an additional $3 million ... in addition to any income he currently has now or whatever wealth he has, on the assumption he was an early adopter of bitcoin that did not need the money, but actually believed in the tech, or decided, "hey I'll buy like $100 worth of bitcoin today" 9 years ago or however much 750 coins cost him if it wasn't mined or earned otherwise.

We don't really know, we are all speculating ...

When I look at 9 years ago, I see a bitcoin price around $5 per coin.. so it is not a trivial amount, whether it was mined or purchased. That is around $3,750 for 750 BTC.

Otherwise, I do not really have anything to add because I believe that I said my part in regard to the plausibility of the 9 year coma or whatever other possible reasonable way of framing a situation in which coins would be ignored for 9 years in which the BTC price appreciated in value around 6,600x. Not a trivial matter in which one would just completely ignore without either having other resources or having had been in a coma.. and the first of which seems quite a bit more plausible to this here electronic cat.

Quote from: Dabs on Today at 12:41:55 AM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff_Original on Today at 12:19:58 AM

No, it wasn't a horrible estimate. I would guess it is probably off by 1 order of magnitude. Yes I suspect bitcoin will absorb a lot of the value in gold, fiat, bonds, and to a much lesser degree housing and stocks. But I don't see why it would need to be as large as all real-estate, companies, commodities, bonds etc. put together.

I will try to leave it at that. I know I have a tendency to become a bit pedantic and argumentative, and I don't want to hijack the thread.

I did add another zero to the estimate, at $100 million per coin. Would that be considered off by 1 order of magnitude? I also understand you can be going in the other direction, which would mean $1 million per coin ... That's also an order of magnitude lower.

Yes, I was thinking about 1 order of magnitude as adding or subtracting a zero too, and as you seem to imply Dabs, it seems way too premature for Spaceman to be suggesting that either Hal was off or which direction that might be, if so...