If you say the BTC price is going down while its going up, then you are likely to correct sooner or later.. and if you say it in a kind of meek and ambiguous way, you are also likely to be right..
I suppose time will tell if we are in a bear cycle.. and really I don't buy your current desire to make a 3.5 year cycle claim.. seems to be convenient at this particular moment.
I didn't say it when it was going up. I said it when we had fallen from mid-sixties to somewhere around the low 40s. And I said I hoped it wasn't the case. We have since slid another 10k in dribs-and-drabs.
But if you like rivers in Egypt, I'm not going to try to dissuade you.

As to the 3.5 years, *shrug*. Seems ever halving is followed by a rally and every halving is (a little over) 3.5 years. All just a coincidence I'm sure. You may not buy it but the honeybadger really doesn't care.