Quote from: Kiley33 on July 23, 2021, 09:44:17 AM

Regarding forecasting tools, everyone will look at them, but they will not fully believe them, because many forecasting tools are not very accurate and sometimes change. You can observe how some whales work. If the prediction is accurate, everyone should now become millionaires, and the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise wildly because of the word "more optimistic" by whales. Some people will panic when the whale suddenly flips a coin, and follow the whale to sell their coins, causing the coins to fall. These are all sudden.

Forecasting tools may have value when you are trying to predict the weather (and even there they are more often than not quite bad depending on the time horizon of course), but in markets forecasting tools are problematic as they never catch the critical outliers that can destroy your investment totally. The reason it sometimes works is because everyone uses the same tools and they function like a sort of shelling point then. That sets free a herd movement towards that new price point. The question then becomes who chooses the smartest spot to sell before everyone else takes the opportunity.