Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 03:25:14 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 12:54:29 AM

In other words, I am not conceding that getting to regular fuck you status is necessarily difficult, and it should be coming down reasonably well in the coming years, whether this cycle or the next one.

Did you adjust for the mindrust factor? Grin

Sure there is a mindrust factor, and I did not really account for it because there are a lot of dumb things that people do when they over invest and they gamble and then they end up doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Look, in my earlier post from just an hour ago, I just gave an example of our hypothetical fuck you aspirant, reaching $500k in 7 years based on $30 per week, so if that same hypothetical fuck you aspirant had invested more, then s/he too would already be at fuck you status or quite close to fuck you status. We can even use the more conservative 208-week moving average.

If we use spot price of $39,000-ish (yeah we are currently having a dippening), then $30 per week gets us to $500k at that price, so under the same scenario we would appreciate that $120 per week would have gotten us to $2billion at spot price.. but personally I do not like spot price.

I think that in order to account for near inevitable BTC price volatility in a bear market we would use the 208-week moving average (which is currently at $14k) in order to be mostly safe to be accounting for the most severe of BTC price bottoms, and in a bull market we could get way with using the 104-week moving average (which is currently at $21k).

I personally feel safer to use the 208-week moving average, and I would not want to be pulling any fuck you lever or suggesting that others pull the fuck you lever on anything less than the 208-week moving average.

So, of course, fuck you status is still a bit further in the distance if we use the 208-week moving average, and it means that we would have needed to acquire at least 142.86 BTC by now in order to be at such status (and of course the actual spot price of 142.86 BTC is close to $6 million, but for BTC volatility purposes we are using the 208 week moving average to assess value). So sure, we may well need more than 7 years and more than $120 per week.

For illustrative purposes, I use 8 years and $250 per week to show that fuck you status could have been achieved in 8 years.... and sure of course that it is investing about $13k per year for the past 8 years, but divided on a weekly basis..and an overall total of $104,500 invested, and a 56.6x return... so a bit aggressive, but reasonably doable without being already rich.

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 03:25:14 AM

Knowing Bitcoin volatility, I think there is a greater chance that more hodlers will get shaken out by a dip than new not-already-billionaire bitcoiners getting to 10x or even 1x FU. I predict (with no supporting data whatsoever, where's the fun in that) that future Bitcoin wealth will be heavily centralized and that we will have more plumbers than bitcoiners reaching the FU level.

Not a bad theory, but you seem to be not very confident in bitcoiners to HODL, but even if what you say is true, there does end up being some redistribution, and not necessarily all towards the institutional rich, and I personally believe that a decent number of nerdy tech types are going to be able to hang onto a sufficient number of their coins, too.. which creates some newer kinds of rich.

Quote from: suchmoon on Today at 03:25:14 AM

Now that I said that I'm genuinely curious what's the ratio. Judging by what they charge I think plumbers might already be winning.

Nueva rich plumbers.. perhaps? perhaps? Sure, some will get into bitcoin, but overall, I have my doubts about them really coming in disproportionately more than any other skilled business that is ready, willing and able to charge premium prices for their services.