There are some people that are very bullish lately. Don't know if you guys follow options trading on Deribit but someone opened 2000 Calls with a $140000-$200000 options spread. Now for those that don't know. This is called a bull spread. What a bull spread does it makes the call option cheaper but limits the max amount of profit. So the $140K calls cost 0.02BTC while $200K calls cost 0.01BTC with year end expiry.
So somebody bought 2000 of the $140K calls for 0.02BTC and sold 2000 of the $200K calls for 0.01BTC. And their overall cost was 0.01BTC for the $140K calls. Now obviously bitcoin doesn't need to go to $140K+ for the option to make money, it just needs to start moving up way before year end and its premium will increase. So if BTC goes to like $50K in the next week, most likely this options premium will go up 50% or so.
Since 0.01BTC was the net cost, at $400 an contract, they spent $800,000 just to perform this trade. Wonder how it will pay off.
I won't pretend to fully understand how all these derivatives work but yeah, actually, bullish bets have been increasing, not decreasing since April. There is a bookie bet on BTC being above 100k price at Christmas which only pays out 1.01... 1 per cent! But there were already 150+ takers. So these are guys so confident of Bitcoin they are willing to hodl til Christmas and get it back only at 1 per cent profit. That's of course because they will have made much more on dollar appreciation.
Moves the last week are positive even now below 40k but the sense that something is coming gets a wee bit stronger every day.
A strong sentiment for BTC not too distant future is there, even with this latest rally to over 40K people held a strong sense of growth and with current prices
being between 40-37K is not a sign of weakness.
Heck, for the past months BTC stabilised around 30K which makes it possible that this Christmas will be a good time for HODLers. To my view, the markets are looking positive.