What we know is that the supply of Bitcoin is at least fixed at right below 21 million and rather deflationary because of lost keys.
I think you have that back-to-front ...
With less bitcoin available, their price has to rise (remember, the old adage of supply and demand:
the less there is of something, the more people want it)
Less bitcoin (in your example above lost keys) = More value overall.
That is a very simplified view of reality. If that was the case, why is any coin with less supply than Bitcoin not more valuable than Bitcoin? Because
demand is a more complex term that what people sometimes make out of it. Anyway, assuming that Bitcoin
has to rise simply in assumption based on the premise that demand will at least not drop. But who knows whether that is the case? What if Bitcoin fails at some point for whatever reason? Hack, founder turns out to be North Korean dictator and owns millions of BTC, whatever. That is why I said it
can increase in value
if.... It is often stated here as if there is no way around Bitcoin going to the moon. If that was the case and a guarantee so to say, we wouldn't be at $50k anymore. That expectation, or guarantee as it is often put, would have been priced in already, sending Bitcoin to the moon and beyond.