Quote from: Zedpastin on August 17, 2021, 10:52:23 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 17, 2021, 10:35:19 PM

Quote from: Zedpastin on August 17, 2021, 10:30:25 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 17, 2021, 10:21:52 PM

Plan B
@100trillionUSD
IMO we are going up, first to 100k, then 288k
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1427707790810914827?s=21

Let me understand is he predicting that we will go to 100k then 288k in 1 cycle or 2? Both sound like bullshit I am not sure how he came to those numbers so soon but I guess it is trying to gain fame and more followers instead of delivering accurate or reasonable predictions.

Your account is a 2016 registration. You should know that honeybadger is more than capable of minimum x 2 in price on a very short timescale.

Do you not remember Q3 & Q4 of 2017?

$100,000 is quite likely this year imo.

I have predicted a couple of posts up that we will reach $250k in 10 years not out of anything that I can back it up with but because of my personal optimism which was based on the years before that we had big unexpected bull runs. My opinion differs from you after listening to what JJG said but I did predict 100k in 5 years which I will keep that prediction. I think 100k and then 288k in the same cycle is bullshit not that he has predicted that Bitcoin will get to 100k or 288k I doubt that it would get between them numbers in 2 cycles. If I am proven wrong I will be happy about it as we will all make a lot of money but has JJG says this is not likely to happen.

I have not followed this PlanB guy before? Is he good at predictions? Maybe I am the idiot for doubting him.

You might be misreading me.. not that I am important in any of this.. but it seems that I am placing pretty decent odds on a variety of upwards scenarios, even if you might consider my numbers as small on my chart.. but you still could add my numbers together to see that they are still seeming to be pretty bullish numbers.... or at least that is how I would characterize my own numbers with a seeming 15% chance of getting above $300k for this cycle which could last for up to a year from now..... and golly gee whiz, you can see that my odds for $150k or higher adds up to 30.5%.. holy shit that seems pretty damned high odds to me that we have nearly a 1/3 chance to go more than 3.3x from here? but sure, you can frame my numbers however you would like to frame your placing of odds on the matter, too.

Maybe I should give up? and stop trying to 'splain my lil selfie and just causing confusion amongst the peeps? Maybe that is one of PlanB's problems, too? Me and PlanB share something in common. too wordy.. PlanB the wordyman.

Cheesy

Quote from: dragonvslinux on August 17, 2021, 10:57:26 PM

Quote from: Zedpastin on August 17, 2021, 10:52:23 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 17, 2021, 10:35:19 PM

Quote from: Zedpastin on August 17, 2021, 10:30:25 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 17, 2021, 10:21:52 PM

Plan B
@100trillionUSD
IMO we are going up, first to 100k, then 288k
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1427707790810914827?s=21

Let me understand is he predicting that we will go to 100k then 288k in 1 cycle or 2? Both sound like bullshit I am not sure how he came to those numbers so soon but I guess it is trying to gain fame and more followers instead of delivering accurate or reasonable predictions.

Your account is a 2016 registration. You should know that honeybadger is more than capable of minimum x 2 in price on a very short timescale.

Do you not remember Q3 & Q4 of 2017?

$100,000 is quite likely this year imo.

I have predicted a couple of posts up that we will reach $250k in 10 years not out of anything that I can back it up with but because of my personal optimism which was based on the years before that we had big unexpected bull runs. My opinion differs from you after listening to what JJG said but I did predict 100k in 5 years which I will keep that prediction. I think 100k and then 288k in the same cycle is bullshit not that he has predicted that Bitcoin will get to 100k or 288k I doubt that it would get between them numbers in 2 cycles. If I am proven wrong I will be happy about it as we will all make a lot of money but has JJG says this is not likely to happen.

I have not followed this PlanB guy before? Is he good at predictions? Maybe I am the idiot for doubting him.

Don't listen to JJG too much right now, he's basically mid term bearish but long term bull Tongue

See what I am saying... totally misunderstood...

Sucks to be me..

Cry

Quote from: dragonvslinux on August 17, 2021, 10:57:26 PM

Once new ATH comes he'll change his tune, I'm sure of it Cool

We're going UP. I'm 90% sure now. JJG knocked 5% off me.

When you say that we are going up, you have to give a time frame and an amount..

So for example, if you were to say that largely $43,700k is the bottom (give or take $500) for this short term correction, and 90% odds that we will be on the way to $53k by no later than 1 week from the time of this post.. for sure I am going to have my doubts, and I don't really try to predict much beyond 50/50 for short term price moves... I do not roll like that... so we are talking about different topics.

You did see me proclaim something like once we pass $46k, the odds are at least 63% that the $28,600 bottom is in, so we still have up to 37% odds of revisiting sub $28,600.

Don't try to trap me into making arguments that I am not making.. especially regarding the short term, because I hardly claim to know shit about the short term, beyond 50/50-ish and since we are in a bull market, it would probably be more accurate for me to generally conclude with 51/49 in favor of UPpity.. something like that.

My other numbers were within this particular cycle which could end anytime between it already ended and 12 months from now, and perhaps even take longer.. what the fuck do I know until it happens even though I had already given numbers to all these scenarios which I consider to be bullish as fuck, and you are wanting me to come out with even BIGGER numbers - and I have never done that even while I was citttttttteeeee as fuck all the way up to $19,666 in late 2017, and did not even sell too much BTC.. maybe I had sold 12% of my total stash by the time we reached the late 2017 top.. which was way less than my earlier projections of selling 20% or some other nonsense like that (that I revised downwardly.. which is also more bullish, if you ask me, but who's asking me.. seemingly no one.. everyone just wants to assume for me..even after I plotted out a pretty detailed skeemening.. 'splaining all things material and relevant to the way that this ~~bot woops~~..guy... thinks.

Quote from: Zedpastin on August 17, 2021, 11:11:18 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on August 17, 2021, 10:57:26 PM

[edited out]

JJG has got a lot more experience than me and has good reasoning to his predictions. I hope that he is wrong but I can see that it probably is more realism than my predictions.

How could I be wrong? I just place odds on a variety of scenarios.

Of course, once the outcome plays out, then the outcome becomes 100%, so if I proclaim that:

outcome 1) has 15% odds,
outcome 2) has a 21% odds
outcome 3) has 10% odds,
outcome 4) has 6% odds,
outcome 5) has a 3% odds
outcome 6) has 9% odds,
outcome 7) has 12% odds,
outcome Cool

has a 25% odds ..

Merely because outcome 5 ends up playing out does not mean that I was wrong merely because it becomes 100% and I placed the lowest odds on that scenario at time 1 when I made the prediction and the scenario of outcome 5 ends up playing out at time 6. Once outcome 5 plays out, all of the other scenarios go to zero, but any of the outcomes could have ended up playing out, no matter what odds I had personally assigned to the various outcomes.

Also, it does not mean that I am either pulling numbers out of my ass (even though I am), it is just that if the future is unknown, there are a variety of scenarios that could play out, and sure maybe many times one of the higher likely scenarios will play out, such as scenario 1, 2, or 8, but sometimes the lesser likely scenario will end up playing out, such as scenario 4 or 5.

Sometimes also with the passage of time, some of the odds for the scenarios will change and some scenarios will have to be completely removed from the list because they become totally impossible to carry out or they become completely negated... so later down the road, there might be fewer scenarios from the original list, but there might be some additional scenarios that need to get added to the list because they become relevant or it might be more informative to split outcome 7 into outcome 7a and outcome 7b (subsets of the earlier scenario that was more general in its description).

Quote from: Zedpastin on August 17, 2021, 11:11:18 PM

I can not pretend that I understand all the charts that you guys post but JJG puts those charts into words which helps people like me. I would be silly not to listen a little to people more experienced than me in studying charts.

Yeah.. but it still seems to me that several of my attempted points had been misunderstood... or at least interpreted in ways that I had not intended to communicate.