Quote from: Dabs on Today at 04:57:34 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on Today at 04:28:02 PM

Halving impact is reducing
Magnitude of waves will reduce*
Frequency of waves will increase
*Possible one more really big UP wave (and possibly the mother of all of them)

This year we will see 90% of the bitcoin supply mined already. Between now and 99%, which is in the year 2035 there will be a few halvings, and I think the mother of all happens somewhere in the middle. Past that, there's not much left to make any significant effect.

By the year 2048, we have 99.9% of supply. The next 100 years to the year 2140 (or as some predict maybe even earlier, but just a few years) is a 0.1% increase to 100% of all bitcoin supply.

But we also know price does not immediately follow these milestones, it may take some time for these numbers to sink in before people, retail, and institutional investors and even countries to buy in.

So I find myself constantly musing the paths forward...

We could follow a rational, predictable (in hindsight) curve that just keeps grinding away, and when you zoom out just looks like a smooth ramp up. The fact that the higher we go (especially from a logarithmic basis) the more it takes to move us supports this. It has the fact that the patient will be rewarded, and there can be many dead bodies along the way of people "glad to get out before that last crash". As bitcoin gradually monetizes.

Or we could reach some tipping point where the growth is explosive and dumbfounding. A point at which the early herd is pouring in and they are able to overcome the logarithmic bias because of the ridiculously small float in real terms that bitcoin has. This also leaves dead bodies along the way of people who were counting on the "cycle" to just keep repeating itself.

Adoption curves favor the latter. And because price is the only metric that really matters in Bitcoin an argument can be made that the price will directly reflect adoption. Because the more people use it, the more things are priced in it, the more it gets stuck in the hands of holders and the smaller that float becomes. Then the ONLY way to loosen up some of the float is to put the price up to a level that the people willing to see... do. And it's that positive feedback loop Satoshi mentioned.

I go back and forth... But I WANT that second road. because i am not young. And that is how I have chosen to play my cards.