Quote from: Undef on March 19, 2014, 05:38:29 AM

Quote from: murt9000 on March 15, 2014, 12:07:51 PM

It doesn't matter if mining is a speculative endeavor for you, not based on todays Bitcoin price but on the future price. The speculation would be more profitable if you got your original funding back in Bitcoin, or as close as possible to it.

Murt,

You may be missing my entire point. I am not a speculator. My goal is not to have some coins sitting in my wallet. My goal is to participate in the bitcoin network, and have a powerful miner working on my behalf, 24/7 for a long time. If all I wanted was some coin to hold, I would never have bought into an ASIC group buy at all.

Please don't speculate with my coin. And that's what you (you all asking to bail out of these miners) are doing. Had the BTC price risen, this thread would not even exist. So, the only reason you want this is because of price speculation. "Let's buy some coin now, with a refund, and hope the price goes back up."

And when you say "absolutely no chance of ROI," let's talk about that. Are you familiar with the BFL Singles? Do you think there is any ROI on those now?

In fact, I have one (technically, two Little Singles) sitting here right now, mining away (and I was a late purchaser). They netted me over $150 in the last 30 days. You know what it costs me to run them? A few bucks in electricity. They will give me "ROI" for quite a long time to come.

I understand the speculator mindset. You put X number of coins into the group buy, and now that the USD/BTC price has fallen, you might get back almost that many coins immediately. But you would then be out of the bitcoin mining industry altogether. You'd have some coins in your wallet, but no way to get any more, except through an outlay of fiat.

I don't want to be out of the bitcoin mining industry. Frankly, I don't believe the whole "no chance of ROI," unless Waldo decides to shut the miners off long before the electricity costs more than the coin.

P.S.
Would you do me, and those of us who want to stay, a favor? Please encourage Waldo to let those who want to stay, stay. I, and others, have asked if he would refund some of the machines, and let the rest go into production. But he won't even answer that request. This is so stressful for me, because people I don't know, and with whom I politely disagree, are trying to make an adverse decision that doesn't even need to affect me. I want you to get what you want; but I don't want to get f****d out of my participation in the network by the speculators.

Please help Waldo do the right thing for all of his shareholders, not just those who want out.

Hi Undef, I'm not speculating with your coin. I'm speculating with my investment. The Neptunes do not belong to you. You just own shares like me and we are both equally entitled to voice our opinion.

I did not ask anyone to do anything. If you review my comment you will be man enough to admit that your accusation is groundless. I said that I don't understand the motivation of those that wish to stay the course but I didn't ask anyone to take any course of action.

I do share one element of your motivation, as I think most of us do here. We all want to see Bitcoin prosper. We all want to support the protocol. Where we diverge is that I don't want to do it at my personal expense. If I make a financial loss in the process then for me the investment has not been successful whereas for you it's still a successful investment because of your love of mining. I respect your perspective, commend you for it and wish you luck with it but to be honest I don't really get it. I would hazard a guess that most investors are mining for profit rather than love but maybe I'm in the minority.

Previous mining success or failure on hardware that is already operational with known specifications and efficiency on past prices and network difficulty is all utterly irrelevant. I have had several successful mining ventures since Q2 2012 but none of that is relevant to this thread. Replace all those known factors with mostly unknown variables and you will be returning to point. I never claimed that none of us have made profitable investments in the past.

I may not have asked anyone to do anything in my comment but you have rather presumptuously and inappropriately asked me to lobby Waldo's customers on your behalf. Consider your request noted and summarily rejected.

If I was to encourage readers of this thread to take any action it would be to disregard our conversation and do their own homework. Don't listen to individual opinions about whether this might be a successful venture or not. Find a good mining profitability calculator that handles exponential network difficulty and price changes and run your own simulations taking into account what you believe to be the most optimistic, most pessimistic and most realistic sets of variables. Then calculate your own forecast by applying the results of those 3 simulations to the PERT formula (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6.

If you do this you will have your own forecast based on variables that you know and understand and you will have a much better understanding of the probability of ROI on this investment.