Quote from: cAPSLOCK on Today at 10:48:07 PM

Just thinking about possible outcomes...

Tomorrow, supposedly, lot's of people will be buying $30 of BTC "in solidarity" with the people of El Salvador. (And I have interest in the dynamics of this, as well as the implications... whether it's a good idea? Or some weird pump and dump? But that is not for this topic. I will not be playing along for... reasons)

But I have been doing *this* a little today:

I would think the outcome in most universes is underwhelming. There might be a price spike, but not much of anything, and I would even think we would see a sort of reverse effect. A "sell on the news" sort of event if you will. The Bitcoin price has already been acting a little friskily. And a cool off period would be reasonable.

But so might be another leg of this bull run. Wink

And the world is STILL not used to an asset with an ever diminishing loose float. This is one of the reasons for a Bitcoin chart looking like nonsense until you plot it exponentially. This is one of the main reasons that people still can't believe Bitcoin is not a bubble. Only Tulips act like this. Or the adoption curves of important new technology.

I know I am preaching to the choir, but here's the thing. Bitcoin is CUSTOM DESIGNED to store value. And at the time of this post 89.6% of it is already in wallets. And only that 10.4% more of the total will EVER come into being.

The thing about pricing bubbles is we have ONLY EVER witnessed them in some sort of commodity. Tulips, dotcom companies, and sub prime mortgages are all examples. But Bitcoin is radically different than these three things. In more than one way. It is perfectly finite. It cannot be copied, but most of all: it is custom designed to hold value. It is MEANT to be money itself. But it is still (early) in the discovery portion of it's genesis. So the monetization of it is not the same as tulip bulbs. In fact the PRICE of Bitcoin is it's main feature. That's the catch. That is the bomb at the end of the fuse.

At some point retail is going to trip over the fact that there are not nearly enough for sale to meet the coming demand.

That's it. That's the point.

So what cAPS? We all know that. We are the wall observers.

Thing is we have still never seen real demand. And the big money investors who have been gobbling up all the early whale fortunes have been doing so as quietly and surreptitiously as possible. And they know as well as us that at some point the music stops, and you are either in a chair or not.

But every holder has a price, right? Of course, which is why Michael Saylor has been able to buy so much. There are people out there with so many bitcoin that they could never spend it all. Some are older, too, and are ready to enjoy the fact that were able to see this thing coming. But there are only so many of those folks.

But the part that has remained calm is the retail float. "It's too late to get into bitcoin" <- is what almost everyone thinks.

Again. Saylor knows what he is doing. Why would he be the front man on a pump and dump? I would bet a WHOLE BITCOIN (if I had that much) on him NOT doing this to dump on all the plebs buying $30 worth tomorrow.

So why?

Because he has figured out the same thing many of us have. At some point a fuse is going to get lit. And tomorrow is a damn good candidate. He holds lot's of sway amongst the Bitcoin Twitter plebs...

I predict that eventually we are going to see a WallStreetBets sort of black swan event. Retail is going to realize they can make the price go up like CRAZY by organizing their buys. This really still needs to be kicked off. And there will be LOTS to talk about once it does as to how the dynamic acts going forward (prices, profit taking, the block size discussion (sigh, again)).

But like I said before... this is different than Tulips. Because once this starts up this time a lot of folks will STILL end up left behind, because they thought they could sell. The people holding BTC are getting stronger and stronger. And the addressable float is getting smaller and smaller. And the demand is getting bigger and bigger. The lesson to this story is no ONLY sell if you really MEAN IT. Wink

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It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

I figure in most universes tomorrow is fairly meh...

But not all of them. And it is indeed inevitable. Eventually that fuse is going to catch.

Strap in brothers (and sister or two?). You might not need that belt tight tomorrow. But then again, you MIGHT.

Stop it, man! I can't spend all my merit on you. Angry