Quote from: gewure on October 17, 2011, 10:56:09 AM

like every second wise-crack inside this forum advocating the total-death of bitcoin

Let me stand up as one of the people who's glad to see it falling.

I don't want Bitcoin to die at all. I just want the wild-eyed speculation that's turned it into a pyramid to die. I'm after a decentralized transactional currency and until we have some stability here or in another cryptocurrency, I'm stuck doing my business with international wire transfers and other traditional banking bothers. The longer people are hung up on trying to pump the price the longer I have to wait for the speculators to wash out of the market.

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but i have to say: i hate it if something goes down not out of fundamentals, but because people are (bitcoin)talkING it to death!! and that is what you do! you say "THE COURSE WILL GO UNDER 0,5$!!!" and encourage everybody to sell with that. what happens?! the course goes to under 0,5$!

I've been talking fundamentals for a while, and here's my formula:

A = USD-value of goods and services purchased per day in BTC
B = Number of days buyers and sellers hold the coins before and after a transaction
C = Number of coins in circulation
D = Number of coins hoarded by (speculators/early adopters/whatever)

Fundamental price = A * B / (C - D)

When we hit that floor (I estimate it's well under a buck, probably in the low-cents range), it will not matter how much people preach doom and gloom; the price WILL stop falling, guaranteed. It'll cushion well above that level (B and D will increase), but that's the hard floor.

Attempting to hold it higher by encouraging D while we're still far above the fundamental price increases volatility and increases the amount we're subsidizing miners, and ultimately just shifts who's holding the bag.

If you want a healthy market, focus on A. As long as A increases, Bitcoin has a future, and the price will stabilize. Without it, all the happy posts in the world won't save anything.