Great idea sirazmuth.

You may well want to make a song, poem or coin about our mutual quest: "searching for bitcoin"



It's likely to be way higher than 2% - absent certain scenarios playing out.. (like BTC going to supra $350k in that timeline and also in that regard, it is going to take a while for either the 208-week moving average or even the higher 104-week to get above $50k.. gosh will either of them be over $50k by February 2022..? perhaps the 104-week moving average will get to higher than $50k by February 2022.. but high doubts about the 208-week moving average to get to those kinds of BTC price thresholds within that timeline.

In other words, how can we have much if any clue about attempting to assign a probability value to the next leg, if we do not know how the preceding leg plays out... and how far and how fast (including how many coins are traded) affects how the 208-week moving average and the 104-week moving averages gravitate UP to higher and higher prices (bottom prices).

I had already made various probability assignments regarding what I had thought that the tops of various upside possibilities could be for this cycle  (references to a couple of those threads of thoughts about possible upside scenarios here 1 and here 2), but I also had not put a specific timeline on when the top of this cycle would be reached.... except for asserting that I thought that the cycle could play out anytime between this quarter and the third quarter of 2022.. of course, the more aspects of price that you attempt to assign, whether amount of top or when it is likely to happen creates lower and lower levels of probabilities of certainty .. so I have some troubles attempting to be too specific.. even though I do not tend to have problems with others who seem to be overly specific, and I have even more problems if they want to argue about being certain about their supposed specific scenarios.

Once one of the scenarios plays out (in terms of BTC price moves in the next 4-5 months) then we can be more realistic in assigning probabilities to various downsides scenarios.  Of course, right now as I type this post, our extreme bottoms (for this particular time) are still something like $22,800 (based on 104-week moving average) if presuming a bull market and something like $15,200 (based on 208-week moving average)if presuming a bear market.. so I am not even really seeing either of those bottom numbers crossing over $50k soon.. the bottom numbers move up relatively slowly, and over course, each of those bottom number indicators move up in more steep curves when the actual BTC price goes higher and goes up with volume and is sustained UP.  They are both lagging indicators, but seem to be pretty damned good when trying to assess where extreme BTC price bottoms are currently (as typing) or where BTC price bottoms might realistically be going in the future - whether projecting out 4-5 months or even attempting to project bottoms a year to 4 years out from now.