In fact, the more people there are that believe the S2F model definitely will happen, the more that whale traders will have an incentive to NOT make it happen and do the opposite, fucking over both leveraged longs and shorts, and trying to shake out more weak-handed hodlers.
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So surely the $million question remains whether bitcoin will still end up springing back to something like the S2F model in spite of strenuous efforts (and a lot of resources) striving to invalidate the S2F model. I am surely all in agreement with you in terms of identifying that there are some likely high stakes traditional manipulators that feel that they have quite a bit to lose based on bitcoin success and ongoing success so they are willing to NOT pull any punches when dealing with bitcoin manipulation and to throw a lot of resources at such "problems," yet in spite of such spent efforts, what's going to happen? Will bitcoin revert to something like S2F .. or perhaps S@F gets shifted downwardly on its curve projections a wee bit, but still does not invalidate S2F - beyond appearing that it is invalidated in the short term or even for one or two 4-year cycles and then at some point when we look back at the whole matter instead of doing something like what S2F had projected, we end up having a 1/3 performance level that resembles S2F, but really does not invalidate it beyond the need to shift the price projection curve downward by the necessary amount.
The S2F model is an interesting theoretical model based on looking at past data and projecting the future. But at the end of the day, that's all it is. And it could end up broken at some point.
The problem I'm having is all these noob acolytes treating it like a self-fullfilling prophecy, and a religion. They buy a small piece of bitcoin and sit on it, waiting for their delayed lottery ticket to strike a winner X months down the road, all because some chart tells them it has to come true.
What happens when things don't turn out like they thought? Will they sell at a loss?