Quote from: Richy_T on Today at 03:48:19 AM

Quote from: Torque on September 27, 2021, 12:05:17 PM

The problem I'm having is all these noob acolytes treating it like a self-fullfilling prophecy, and a religion. They buy a small piece of bitcoin and sit on it, waiting for their delayed lottery ticket to strike a winner X months down the road, all because some chart has "promised" them that a certain price will come true by a certain date. Like that is a 100% certainty.

What happens when things don't turn out like they were lead to believe? Will they all lose their shit, sell at a loss and become nocoiners again?

The problem with any kind of analysis is that you become prey to those with a better model (or better information). This to the degree that you are quite likely to perform worse than random. So you have to ask yourself what tier analysis you think you're operating under. For most people the answer will simply be "not good enough".

Since when are we going to have any model about the future that is going to be 100%? The future has not happened yet.

Accordingly, if we are looking at medium to longer term, and let's say four-year cycles, then our currently top three credible models remain some kind of combination of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects... yeah, sure even with some kind of attempted hybridization of the top three models, there is still going to be probability assignments based on whatever time frame that we might be looking at and then short-term BTC price movements can mess up momentum or even a kind of need to shift the curves - so with all kinds of short-term happenings such as momentum, happenings in the shitcoin space, various bearish or bullish news, pulling of hashpower or increases to hash power or other factors, these could well have some affects on short term momentum in one direction or another, but still the overall underlying pressures involving factors of the three above listed models are likely to continue to have pulling effects on the BTC price that surely continue to cause BTC to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside (aka number go up (NGU) technologies)....

What m ore can you ask for? Are there some better models that need to be plugged in that are not merely noise? Yeah we here all kinds of bullshit theories and we even have guys coming in here and rolling their own models while failing/refusing to account for the most convincing and credible of the currently BTC price prediction models. Sure bring up some other factors, and we will see if those factors mean anything to the long term models or might need to be tweaked into the models, but the vast majority of the time, a lot of these various other factors are not worthy of much beyond some kind of short-term phenomena, noise or insignificant aberrations of the data.