Quote from: Victorycoin on Today at 05:01:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:12:20 AM

What m ore can you ask for? Are there some better models that need to be plugged in that are not merely noise? Yeah we here all kinds of bullshit theories and we even have guys coming in here and rolling their own models while failing/refusing to account for the most convincing and credible of the currently BTC price prediction models. Sure bring up some other factors, and we will see if those factors mean anything to the long term models or might need to be tweaked into the models, but the vast majority of the time, a lot of these various other factors are not worthy of much beyond some kind of short-term phenomena, noise or insignificant aberrations of the data.

I also think with you that those who work with Bitcoin first think that they have achieved a lot of success, but most of the time they work there even if they apply the complete formula of trading in cryptocurrency, but only a little bit in the case of Bitcoin. Although it is much less in number or percentage, if you apply the theory of trading very carefully 50% -60% is useful the rest is not very useful.

The portion of my post that you referenced was an attempt at getting towards figuring out what are amongst the best of current BTC price prediction models, and not so much about how to accumulate BTC, whether there are some tried and true methods of dollar cost averaging, lump sum investing and buying on dips. We likely run into more risks and difficulties when we attempt to accumulate bitcoin through trading and even more of a kind of slippery slope into off-topicness when we get into considering accumulating more BTC through the trading of shitcoins.

Of course, we can talk about a lot of topics in this thread, and sometimes one topic will merge into another - even though I do believe that the totality of my earlier post (that you referenced) was an attempt to try to show that we already have some pretty damned decent BTC price prediction models overall, but those BTC price prediction models are mostly about the longer term of bitcoin, including framing the matter in 4 year or longer time periods (cycles) and not really getting into the discussion of BTC price performance as it might relate to trading dynamics (whether talking about trading BTC by itself or trading some shitcoins that might be aimed at attempting to increase a guy's/gal's BTC stash).

Quote from: Victorycoin on Today at 05:01:43 AM

But if I were to talk about a few more things would say that many traders here can't accept losses because of the leverage.

I personally do not recommend either trading or the use of leverage, even though there are ways to attempt to do either (or both) of those in ways that are somewhat smart - even if they are bringing more risk to the positions that any BTC accumulator might be employing through more straight-forward BTC accumulation strategies. One of the benefits of BTC remains that it is such an ongoing asymmetric bet that adding too much risk could otherwise work against you when you already had identified a winning bet and more basic and straight-forward techniques could well assure that the bets on bitcoin pay off, so long as you do not get too greedy.

Many times, I have brought up the issue that normies have traditionally been locked out of both high performance investments and also the vast majority of normies are never really able to reach a kind of fuck you status or even a high level of financial comfort in their lives because they have a lot of systems that are working against them - including underperformance of traditional assets and also most recently the frequently subtle and deleterious effects of inflation (which has kind of reared its ugly head in recent times, for those who are ready, willing and able to see it).

Accordingly, even with traditional investments, historically, a guy/gal who had been able to achieve fuck you status in 30 years to 40 years of investing would have quite considerably outperformed his/her peers - because it has not really been a common outcome, even for relatively smart normies who had worked their asses off to attempt to achieve those kinds of financial/psychological successes. In that respect, it seems to me that bitcoin has the potential of cutting down the amount of time to get to fuck you status by 1/2 or even by 2/3rds, but in no way would I be recommending to be employing various kinds of unnecessary risks, when bitcoin is already a good bet... Sure you may be able to leverage to some degree and to trade to some degree, but seems way the hell better to NOT rush things too much and to attempt to build your foundations first through first employing sound and perhaps aggressive BTC accumulation strategies.. and then once getting a decent grounding on figuring out and employing those kinds of strategies, then going to more advanced strategies (if your situation allows for you to attempt more advanced strategies).

Surely, I cannot really know your personal situation Victorycoin, and there might not be any need to get into any kinds of details, but surely, your situation will be different depending on if you are really early into BTC accumulation and if you have decent cashflows and other investments or even if your timeline is long versus short, versus having other circumstances that might be yours, and of course, I frequently mention that there are needs to tailoring of any approach in both financial and psychological ways.. that will also allow you to plan and act from reason (rather than emotions) and also to attempt to learn from whatever strategies that you do end up employing to attempt to shoot for goals that you may well end up taking.. hopefully without employing more risks than you are ready, willing and able to tolerate.