Quote from: thatguyontheinterweb on Today at 04:31:18 PM

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The last block Kanopool mined was 436 days ago, so chances are that the pool is well overdue. Which to me sounds like I should divert the few miners I have at Kanopool (about 50TH/s, just what I can do on my own). However, 1/30000 is just such a small chance that it may just be likely that getting that lucky may not happen.
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The 'may not happen' is a misunderstanding of the statistics.

The most obvious point being that every block is found by a single miner around 100TH or less.
So if we assume that every physical miner is around 100TH everywhere on every pool (but in fact most are less than that) then 'may not happen' is the same as saying that since each miner is only 100TH, none may ever find a block.
Yet every single block, found every day, is found my one of these miners somewhere on the planet.

The issue with a small pool is the fact that the expected time between blocks can be large.

However, to change another misunderstanding in your comment, the expected time to the next block is always 100% from now.

When we will get the next block is completely random, but ... read Help->Luck