Quote from: dancupid on October 18, 2011, 03:16:46 PM

Quote from: Technomage on October 18, 2011, 10:57:11 AM

I almost made a new thread but I'll simply use this thread.

I think that we're currently in a very clear dead cat bounce situation and we will actually be locked into a cycle of bouncing for a while now. This is because most people have now accepted the fact that there will be no major uptrend in the near future, so nobody is willing to drive the price to $5+.

Now what this means is that every time we go up a certain percentage, there will be massive selling pressure. A very high percentage of all activity will be simply day trading. The bag holders don't want to sell if they haven't already, because they think the price can't go much lower anymore.

On the other hand people waiting to buy are not sure if it's low enough yet and are very caucious, most likely waiting for the price to go lower.

This to me looks like we will be fairly stable for the next few months and possibly bottom out at lower than $2.x at some point. After that it's really upto the real Bitcoin economy what'll happen, if there are real developments and increased adoption, we will have a new uptrend. This uptrend will be more massive than anything so far if it takes off, but it won't be based on pure hype. Stuff needs to happen.

But an economy is not built in a day, I'm not even convinced Bitcoin will really flourish next year. It might take many years. But as long as it's functional and legal there are very good odds we'll see good things in the future.

You've just described capitalism and the free market.

Well excuse me ... But i believe the CAT will be dead or playing dead for fairly long long time before she can jump up again and run.. well , fairly long enough to shake off all the leach hit-and-run miners and traders.

And again, and no matter how much you say this is a repeated talk of nonsense, the difficulty is the key to look up what is going on .. but this time i say not just the difficulty .. it is the difficulty combined with the total network hash.

Because the current situation is a crazy so so so much stretched difficultly with insane mining power! So the cat is playing DEAD And it will keep it like that to shake off those mine-and-run and trade-and-run leaches.

Only, and it is jut the only way, the difficulty settle down at sane level combined by reasonable network hash power. then the cat will be up and running again.

The only exception to that is the introduction of the law, religion, big-ass market adoption or political power (or any other similar non-sense spiritual power) to force in huge number of daily users and drive the demand up.

Like in case of a residential decision to use bitcoin as the official currency for the united colonies of beavers or colored republic of birds, ummm or a sun religious direction to the sun flowers around the earth or maybe the a royal adoption by the kingdom of mars aliens... or if you are lucky some ancient writings are discovered on the great wall of ants that tells them to use only bitcoin or a lucky adoption by Assbook users, fart electronic cards around the globe , .. etc which is not likely to happen any time soon if it will at all.

Until then we will enjoy decorating the R.I.P Bitcoin Grave with a lot of sorrow and speculation section forum posts.