Quote from: Copetech on Today at 07:27:50 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:08:54 PM

Quote from: Copetech on Today at 02:43:00 PM

Looks like Gold prices are finally starting to feel the upward push of inflationary policy. I think our BTC rise so far this month has been more of a self fulfilling prophecy situation. Price going up because everyone is expecting it to go up Oct. through Dec. But now Gold is showing the natural effects of money printer go brrr and we'll start to see BTC accelerate in its uppity climb.

Oh? I did not know that bitcoin's investment thesis was a self-fulfilling prophecy.. wow.,. and I did not know that bitcoin was going up merely because more and more people believe.. I thought that there was more there there.

Self-fulfilling prophecy seems to be a pretty damned superficial reason to be into bitcoin.

Whatever, you can believe what you want in regards to why you are into bitcoin, what makes price go uppity (or otherwise) and what kinds of dynamics underly bitcoin's investment thesis.

Oh Come On Now J1G! Nobody can deny that a certain percentage of any investment asset is based on psychology & speculation!

"Certain percentage" is different from "self-fulfilling prophecy." So you are changing your characterization if you are now asserting certain percentage.

Quote from: Copetech on Today at 07:27:50 PM

Not even implying that it's the only factor moving the price, in fact I explicitly said otherwise in the quote above, but if the general consensus amongst all the "experts" is that it's a 4 year cycle based on halvings and that the price will rise in the 4th quarter, you'd almost have to assume a goodly number of peeps will act on that knowledge.

Who cares? It's a distracting way of framing the matter.. but hey, you do what yo want in terms of telling us that bitcoin is fueled by psychology and speculation.

Quote from: Copetech on Today at 07:27:50 PM

And if more people are willing and even eager to buy at higher prices, of course the value will go up. That's exactly how value is determined in any market.

I doubt that is "exactly" what is happening, but you are free to believe what you want.

Quote from: Copetech on Today at 07:27:50 PM

So general consensus this year has been that we'd see a spike in price in the 4th quarter, therefore, even if the underlying reason for said spike had not yet come to fruition, you could reasonably expect at least some rise purely based on the speculation. Therefore, self fulfilling prophecy.

Therefore, your framework sucks, as I already suggested.

Quote from: Copetech on Today at 07:27:50 PM

Then when the fundamentals catch up, that rise accelerates.

Fundamentals do not need to catch up. They are already there.

Quote from: Copetech on Today at 07:27:50 PM

And when it really gets fired up FOMO kicks in and you generally get a blow off top. You disagree?

For sure, there is overexuberance that happens in each cycle, and it likely happens several times in any cycle too... in both directions, but I would not frame the matter as if the overexuberance that happens from time to time is what has been driving the BTC price..or even anywhere near the main factor.... even if it happens to be something that is part of the BTC price dynamics.. but you can believe what you want in terms of how much weight you give to varying factors and what you believe the fuels of BTC price happens to be.. and if what you are saying sounds weird or worth commenting on then you might get some push back from yours truly, as you already have gotten some push back and commenting.