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Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 18, 2021, 07:26:01 PM

By the way, you remember Raja_MBZ ~

#mindrust_vol.2_lite.edition

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 18, 2021, 07:26:01 PM

Or even thinking of Billynocoiner..

He wasn’t gonna buy back at 30’s ….. price wasn’t good yet etc

I have to say… I thought Raja was one of the guys with good knowledge etc

Pity I was wrong, not for myself but for the dude …

I didn't even remember Raya "opting out".
Afaik a good guy, so also a loss for the WO community.
However, bad examples keep us to remember how we won't do it.

EDIT: fixed the fucked up quoting.

Yeah.. Raja_MBZ was a bit adamant about what he was doing and maybe even trying to persuade others to do the same thing, and you can find his posts through my link (but for your convenience -- here).. and of course, we cannot even be sure about how much BTC that he had been working with, but really it seems that he had prematurely concluded that we were either in a bear market or that there was going to be some kind of similar liquidating event such as March 2020.. Not a completely unreasonable gamble for sure, but looks a bit stupid after the fact because it really seems that he was gambling that view with his whole portfolio rather than maybe a fraction of it.. less than 50% might have been a bit more prudent rather than being greedy in regards to such a betting against BTC viewpoint.

Anyhow, not really prudent to have been gambling on that view of things, anyhow... By the way, he did provide a pretty decent link in one of his posts in terms of being able to track historical touching points of the 200-week moving average (here's a link to that website). The website shows that the 200-week moving average has been touched a number of times in the past in terms of mostly in bear markets that we have had (such as December 2018, quite a bit in 2015 and even back to 2012). Yes, the 200-week moving average was even touched in the middle of a bull market in March 2020, and it does seem that Raja_MBZ had gotten screwed up in his considering that the 200-week moving average was more at play than it was, and he was willing to gamble his BTC portfolio based on such retrospectively erroneous (seemingly wishful-thinking view).

By the way, Raja_MBZ was not totally incorrect in terms of a decent likelihood that BTC prices will again hit the 200-week moving average, but it seems that part of his problem was prematurely calling a bear market - which was not only his error.. there were a lot of bitcoin analysts making similar proclamations - and surely the extent of the May/June/July correction (that ended up being greater than 50%) did cause even bitcoin bullish folks to convert over to bearish views regarding where bitcoin prices might have been going in the next 1-2 years.. but seems to have ended up being wrong.

Another thing is that sooner or later, Raja_MBZ is going to end up being correct in regards to BTC prices going down to meet 200-week moving average prices, but surely there could be a lot of opportunity cost involved in such waiting it out - especially since we have likely been in a bull market all along, and there would be some need to be in a bear market in order to have realistically meaningful chances of touching upon the 200-week moving average outside of some kind of liquidation fluke (like what had occurred in March 2020 - and not even saying that such fluke could not happen again.. but it seems to NOT be a very sound practice to be betting your investment value on possible flukes rather than more likely non-fluke expectation scenarios)...

We can also see from the 200-week moving average chart that in late May 2021 (when Raja_MBZ proclaimed to have sold his BTC at $55k-ish), the 200-week moving average was at about $12.5k, and right now, the chart is showing the 200-week moving average to be at about $16.4k, so the 200-week moving average is steadily moving up.. and surely, it could be the case that the 200-week moving average gets to well above $55k before the actual spot BTC price touches the 200-week moving average and Raja_MBZ is going to be able to buy back his BTC at a profit... surely there could be 1 year or quite a bit more before the 200-week moving average gets up to $55k-ish.. so maybe in that regard, Raja_MBZ believes that he has a lot of time for his sale at $55k-ish to remain potentially profitable.. even though many of us would consider that there is a lot of opportunity costs to be failing/refusing to hold BTC with a hope to buy back at some point that the BTC spot price touches upon the 200-week moving average and hoping that the price will be lower than $55k at such time that the BTC spot price does end up touching upon the 200-week moving average. What a gamble that Raja_MBZ seems to be making!!! What a gamble!!!