Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:26 PM

BTC at 1 mill is coming but very likely it will be a while.

I think there is a lot of interest from big players that will effort to pack the price lower.

So 100k+ is about 50-50 this cycle
and 300k+ is doubtful in 2021 or 2022 under 10% shot.

We might be somewhat in a similar ballpark in terms of some of our expectations of numbers.. and in the calculations that I did below, it looks like I am placing supra $100k at less than 50/50.. only about 47%.. even though I am shooting the numbers a wee bit out of my ass, too.

On the other hand, I have my doubts about $1 million being as BIG of a stretch as you seem to be making it out to be. Of course, $1 million or higher has decently low odds for this cycle... probably similar as I had estimated in earlier posts of less than 3% (links to my August estimates). My prior numbers had not really gotten stuck on exactly $1 million because of course that would be a resistance point, so I had described our ending this cycle in $800k to $1.5 million as having 2.5% odds, and I had described supra $1.5 million as having less than 0.5% odds. So, of course $1 million falls in the midst of a range that would need to be hit.. with pretty decently low odds for this particular cycle.. and maybe my numbers are bit too optimistic, I am not sure.. I am not really opposed to revising my current estimates (see below) downwards a wee bit, yet I believe for now my projections are not outrageous or anything like that.

Furthermore, depending where this cycle ends, $1 million comes decently in solid striking distance for the next cycle. Of course, if $67,010 ends up being the top or something below $100k, then maybe it becomes a bit more difficult to reach $1 million-ish numbers, but if we end this cycle anywhere between $300k and $600k or even higher then $1 million plus is put into a kind of easy-peasy striking distance for the next cycle and even more in the cycle thereafter.

I might even start to put my lil selfie in the category of overly-optimistic wack-job because when I look at my August projections on this topic, I can add up all the projections above $300k and confirm that at that time, I had calculated $300k plus BTC prices as having about 15% odds of happening... and in subsequent times (the past two months) BTC price moves have largely bolstered my projections rather than even suggesting that I should revise them in either direction..

Likely we can even presume less exponential BTC price explosions in future cycles and still reasonably reach $1 million in one or two cycles. Let's set death of the cycle aside for the moment, especially since such death has not even close to have come to true of happening beyond theoretical projections that seem more like imaginening rather than reality.

In essence, you incentivized me to revisit some of my August numbers that I had been projecting several times. Many links to my previous attempts at UPpity BTC price projections and explanations for the chart can be found in this post.

Updated BTC price projections - attempting to account for today's price and today's seeming BTC price dynamics:

above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million - nearly most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds

$650k to $800k - aggressively bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds

$450k to $650k - Optimistically highly bullish - about 7.75% odds

$200k to $450k - Moderately highly bullish - about 15.5% odds

$100k to $200k - mediocre bullish - about 16.5% odds

$80k to $100k - relatively bearish (not too bullish) - about 6% odds

$67k to $80k - the remainder of deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 4.5% odds

down from here ($67k as the top) - most bearish - but possible - about 42.5% odds

I believe that those add up to 100%, and my numbers have not really changed too much, and maybe they are a bit too optimistic/bullish..

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:26 PM

A lot depends on gear being sold to mine. I figure asic builders could attempt to flood the market with gear in 2022. This was done in 2018.

I continue to NOT find mining as much if any of a leading factor in terms of BTC price movements.. surely on the margins differences could happen ..

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:26 PM

Price went down and diff went up from jan till oct 2018 . then the market finally reflected over-saturation of gear. the diff and price both slid form oct 2018 to dec 2018. I started my 4 partner mine in dec 2018.

Seems that you are describing shadows on the wall of a cave to me... in other words a big so what that is ONLY loosely, if at all, associated with what is really happening... but hey.. believe what you like.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:26 PM

I have to think asic gear builders want to do this sell of gear bigly sooner or later. as they may feel 1 or 2 1/2ings will spell the end of large mining. Savetherainforest may think 2 cycles are left to heavy BTC mining.

We will have to see how the mining evolves in terms of incentives to do it... I doubt that it is going to drop off as BIGGEDly as you are projecting.. and sure you are the supposed specialist but I don't see miners going away even if the fee incentives change including the ongoing halvenings of the subsidies... We have 6.25.. then we have 3.125.. then we have 1.5625... then we have 0.78125.. there are likely going to continue to be incentives to mine with reward and fees.. but whatever, I may well be dead by the time this gets to below 1 BTC per 10 minutes.. and that 0.78125 BTC will probably be more than a $million at that time (that would be around $1,280,000 per BTC)... that is more than 3 cycles from now.. #just saying... seems that the odds are pretty decent that 0.78125 BTC is going to be worth more than a $million during the cycle in which that becomes the reward.. (You can believe what you like, and I can believe what I like about what is going to be the state of BTC affairs 14 years-ish from now), so likely incentive to mine is going to continue to exist (- fees will come close to the same as the reward.. or at least the combination of fees and reward will create plenty of ongoing incentives to mine our lil fiend (aka king daddy)... No need to fear.. no need to fear.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:26 PM

As for me I am not a kid I am 64 and will not continue mining past 70 mostly due to my age as it is work to do it.

With all my kids dead and just me and the wife I would not mind enjoying travel and zero work from 70 on. We will see what unfolds .

Having to work into your 60s and beyond does not seem to be a good thing.. .unless you really want to.. .. so yeah, if you are already in your 60s and your are working then you are in whatever state that you are... and if you are able to reasonably foresee a way out of working earlier than 6 years from now that would be good too.. and difficult for me to know for sure.. Even if you were able to aggressively DCA into BTC for a few years.. or lump sum, hard to know if that would be advisable, even though so far in BTC's history we have continued to see bitcoin prices to be higher 4 years later from whenever time a guy invested.. not sure if that dynamic is going to continue to play out, even though there does not really seem to be any compelling argument against it.. at least not so far for anyone who has some kinds of ideas regarding some of the ongoing adoption and network effects dynamics continuing to happen in bitcoinlandia.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:26 PM

For now stack your sats.

Depends on if you reached your BTC accumulation goals or not.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:37:26 PM

and remember when I do cash coin it is for running the business.

We have a lot of expansion coming maybe 100k watts to { 300kwatts } to 900 kwatts

we grew from 100 to 300 kwatts in 2021

Those business decisions are for you to decide if they are good uses of your capital and your time.