Quote from: grod on October 19, 2011, 07:07:00 PM

I have no better barometer of bitcoin community sentiment than hash rates, so I will use that. Here is what looks to be happening: hash rates on deepbit are now below a terahash. In the coming days this will be reflected in slower transaction rates and rapidly dropping next difficulty estimate.

The same miners who can't cash out will decide to shut down knowing they'll be mining those coins at < 800k difficulty if they take a break. We've seen this with alt chains -- when it looks like the next difficulty adjustment is severe enough there is a negative feedback loop in computing power. The ones left (free power miners) mine at a disadvantage for a disproportionately long time.

The risk for bitcoin price is a larger % of miners may decide to sell some knowing they'll mine back more coins, cheaper. Going from 15-20% of miners selling their stash to even 30% would be horrific. If I estimate my cost basis to make a bitcoin just went from $2.80 to $.90 I'll have no problems dumping at $2.

If I see a 75% drop in hashing power that'd be my confirmation of a bottom. I will at that point switch strategy from bear to neutral and ready to go bull.

Grod, there is a reason people are unable to grasp your argument. They don't understand the first thing about the relevant calculations for profitability. A large part of this is combined ignorance and hubris; I am almost tired of being infuriated by the obscene lack of basic understanding of profitability. The other part is just plain hubris. They may understand, but they want to believe so badly, they'll happily ignore reality for it.

Technomage, I've seen you write great stuff, in terms of technical understanding. But you're cherry-picking to suit your desires.