Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2021, 09:42:48 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on November 08, 2021, 09:32:52 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on November 08, 2021, 07:24:47 PM

.... I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it? There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000. That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

Well that is a way of looking at it. Personally I say teasing really does make people anticipate explosive finishes.

How about we slowly go to 70k Dec 31 and float around the 70-90 range for most of Jan-June. Then explode past 300k by aug 1

This works for me.

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that.

We do not get gradual upswings in prices.... so your scenario comes off as pie in the sky.. maybe generous if even having something like a 10% chance of happening as you outlined it.

Quote from: Biodom on November 08, 2021, 10:15:44 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on November 08, 2021, 09:32:52 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on November 08, 2021, 07:24:47 PM

.... I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it? There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000. That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

I know what you mean....but the DISTANCE is typically not being measured in % (as your example illustrates).
The numerical distance between 650000 and 65000 (be it miles or mm) is 585000 "units", while the distance between 650 and 65 is 585 units.
Naturally, 585000 is exactly 100 times bigger "distance". With 585 miles driven you won't even cross the TX border going north from here, but with "driving" 585000 miles you would circumnavigate the globe more than twenty times.

I know that i sound boring and I get the gist of your idea, but i just can't agree that these two series of numbers are even remotely similar, sorry.

As usually you make little sense Biodom.

Of course, there is some need for the whole bitcoin to be larger (probably not quite 100x larger) in order to move 100x higher value.... within exponential effects are network effects.. so there is a certain amount of magnification that occurs in networks whether we are talking about the impacts of value transfers or other transactions on the network or the implications of value taken off the network and not being used for liquidation purposes.

Quote from: d_eddie on November 08, 2021, 10:57:52 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on November 08, 2021, 09:32:52 PM

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it? There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000. That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

The difference between 65/650 and 65k/650k is not in the ratio itself.
It is in the ratio between the numbers involved and the total amount of fiat in the world.

Q. Got it, daddy! So, is the whole amount of fiat in the world 1000x as much as it was when the corn was at 65?
A. Not yet, son, but they're working hard at it.

(Fuckin' legend!)

EDIT: I think @Biodom was meaning much the same thing in his latest post.

Gotta see some kind of humor in the above post, even if each of us are likely framing the matter differently. Wink

Quote from: eddie13 on November 08, 2021, 11:05:31 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2021, 09:42:48 PM

Well that is a way of looking at it. Personally I say teasing really does make people anticipate explosive finishes.

How about we slowly go to 70k Dec 31 and float around the 70-90 range for most of Jan-June. Then explode past 300k by aug 1

This works for me.

You just want to mine more before it goes up don'cha?

Personally, I believe that philip is quasi-delusional, and he seems to maintain some anchoring of his imagination by misconceptionings that king daddy is limited by hashening powers.., or some kind of similar nonsense that is ONLY loosely connected to reality.... but hey, it's a free country (or might we say thread?... WO country? similar to bat country?).. last time I checked, which means that any of us can anchor upon whatever variations of our BTC price theories that we imagine to be the most plausible.

Quote from: PoolMinor on November 08, 2021, 11:14:08 PM

New poll, please

In reaching a new ATH today (so far $67,804 as I type this post - and breaking our October 20 ATH of $67,017) maybe several of us can finally proclaim that we got a poll correct.. whether luck or not with those 50/50 random odds.. it feels good, man.