Quote from: Hydrogen on November 11, 2021, 09:49:11 PM

Quote from: BernyJB on November 11, 2021, 05:19:46 PM

There are (as of now) 14029 cryptocurrencies listed in coinmarketcap.com.
A case has been made (repeatedly) for the existence of a bubble in the cryptocurrency market.

Ok. Let's talk bubbles for a second.

Quote

Goldman Flags $8.2 Trillion Threat Worse Than China Evergrande

Sep 30, 2021

The real worry concerning the China Evergrande default drama is the inevitable where-there’s-smoke-there’s-fire paranoia that accompanies debt stumbles.

The most worrisome such blaze, say analysts at Goldman Sachs, is surging local government debt levels that President Xi Jinping’s men have done their best to hide. The default troubles at the globe’s most indebted property development seem like small embers compared to the $8.2 trillion worth of local government financing vehicles outstanding.

And that’s just the LGFVs we know of. The data that Goldman’s Maggie Wei highlights is as of the end of 2020. Clearly, the tally is higher now—perhaps markedly. Ten months ago, these shadowy investment schemes had reached 53 trillion yuan, up from 16 trillion yuan, or $2.47 trillion, in 2013. They now amount to roughly 52% of China’s gross domestic product, topping the official amount of outstanding government debt.

In other words, as scary at the $300 billion Evergrande story might be, Xi’s government has much bigger problems on its hands. The most acute: keeping GDP this year from falling too far below the 6% Beijing hoped to produce without adding to the nation’s bubble troubles.

The forces behind local governments sitting on financing-vehicle debt worth twice the size of Germany’s GDP date back to 2008. Even before the Lehman Brothers crisis, Communist Party dynamics encouraged municipal borrowing binges. The way local officials got attention in Beijing—and rose to national prominence—was producing above-average GDP rates.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2021/09/30/goldman-flags-82-trillion-threat-worse-than-china-evergrande/

According to this there is an $8.1 trillion dollar automotive loan bubble in china.

The student loan bubble in the USA alone is said to be larger than $1.5 trillion.

Bubbles are usually associated with large sums of outstanding debt. Which makes it difficult to know where the "crypto is a bubble" claims are stemming from.

I think this post by @Hydrogen was overlooked for no reason by many posters in this thread.

Indeed, considering those numbers, crypto market with its current cap of $2.54T, isn't looking like a bubble that much. I'm not trying to say that each and everyone of the 40% of crypto, remaining after subtracting BTC's and ETH's parts, is worth something. Most of them aren't worth sh*t, and they will surely crash. But maybe 10-20 cryptos worth their market caps.