Quote from: TERA on March 22, 2014, 11:21:31 PM

Quote from: windjc on March 22, 2014, 10:57:09 PM

Quote from: TERA on March 22, 2014, 10:49:14 PM

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

You really are leaving us.

Care to go into a more detailed description of our pending bitcoin apocalypse?

I've given the details already. The technicals of this subcycle have diverged from the technicals of the previous subcycles, so it more likely to continue diverging from them than to follow them and start another rally. If the 1 week emas go down then there will likely be a long sideways/down period. I didn't necessarily say anything about an apocalypse. Unlike other posters here shouting about $100 etc, I haven't given a specific downside target. I simply acknowledge that it will not be a very profitable time to trade or invest. Holding funds on an exchange to trade with for an entire year would certainly be too risky. It would be much less risky and more profitable to withdraw the funds into other markets and investments where they grow exponentially (or at least don't disappear), and then can be put back into the bitcoin markets when ready (and probably at a lower price than where I sold). FYI I am not committed to this path yet.

Ok. Makes sense. But, just note, when you say things like "we are no longer talking about a 9 month subcyle" and "if we break the weekly 30 EMA then its a new ballgame (paraphrased)" it sounds very dramatic.

We are certainly going to close a week or two below the weekly EMA. Its happened before. That doesn't mean anything. If it just continues to stair step down to $370 then it might indeed be a little time until we recover.

However, I do not think it can be restated enough:bitcoin is not a stock nor is it a commodity (yet). It has not and will not follow all the predicted rules. As you have experienced yourself more than once.