Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 5 from 3 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 24/11/2021, 17:24:42 UTC
⭐ Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2) ,Daltonik (2) ,d_eddie (1)
Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

75% of my stash goes nowhere this cycle. I have sold some at $60,000 & at $65,000. I even panic sold some at $57,xxx & $56,xxx recently. I have extracted a large amount of cash already & have some corn on an exchange which will be sold this year too. I’m waiting for hopefully better prices before the bull run ends on them though.

I can guarantee 75% of my stash isn’t touched this cycle. Some I’ve sold already though & that will total 25% before Christmas. I won’t regret it either. I will be retired at 35 with a new home without a mortgage, no debt, a lump sum of fiat to get me through to the next cycle. Probably look to invest in some stonks & maybe a small apartment or two to rent out also.

75% going nowhere though.
25% partially sold & will all be sold by New Year.

No regrets, after buying & HODLING since 2014 this is the first time I’ve extracted significant funds from bitcoin. I think I deserve it, less pressure & panic watching charts. Peace of mind is something important I think.

You are the one keeping the BTC price down this calendar year.  hahahahahaha


I know that I like to razz you but having a plan to sell in the way that you are selling seems a bit problematic for some folks... ...

I don't want to get in the way of any of your details too much, but let's just say that the BTC price stays  flat and maybe even down to $46k until the end of the calendar year, so you seem to be suggesting that you are selling whatever you have that would be up to 25% no matter what before the end of the year.

So in that hypothetical that I just described, we could end up finishing the cycle in 2022 - which could end up being $100k plus and even up to $1.5million-ish per coin, and in that situation, you had already sold your 25% max.. so you would not be selling any more?  My point is that kind of calendar based selling seems to rigid, even though for sure you can do whatever you like.

My suggestion would be to have an allowance that would allow up to 25% or even 20% that might be for sure for this calendar year and then another amount that would be staggered at various points up to $1.5 million, in the event that something like $1.5 million were to happen this cycle or in a kind of rapid way.  What happens frequently when you ladder up your sales based on price rather than time, then you still might see that you still have ONLY sold an additional 5% or 10% of your stash all the way up to something like $1.5 million....

I just did a quickie look at my round about laddering up sales projections outline up to $1.5 million (my outline currently goes up to $6 million) and I see that I would have only sold about 15% in total all the way up to that $1.5 million-ish price, even if the BTC price were to go shooting straight up from here (of course my current orders ONLY currently go up to $150k-ish), and when the price versus amount of sales versus value of holdings for each is plotted out like that, even with the selling of 15% of the total quantity of BTC as compared to the quantity of BTC holdings currently in possession, the total dollar value of the remaining BTC portion is still growing multiple times faster than the amount being sold, so there is no real prejudicing in any kind of way... because the value of the BTC holdings would have gone up something like 22x - even with a 15% shaving off.. It is hard to find any kind of prejudicing from that kind of a layout, and it allows for ongoing personally tailored incrementalisms.

Sure, maybe your approach already accounts for various potentially higher prices that could happen in this cycle?  but your description of stopping any kinds of sales no matter what at the end of the calendar year seems to be too much caught up on time deadlines rather than really attempting to be practical for ongoingly making sure that you are good in regards to various possible subsequent BTC behaviors.. including extracting some profits in the event that BTC prices go shooting up to high levels and then do not return to those high levels for 10 years or longer or ever for that matter. 

What I am saying is that even with a relatively modest and continuing selling of BTC in incremental ways at various points up the ladder that depend on price rather than time is a way preferred method, even if you may well be shaving off decent amounts this year no matter what (including your decision to shave off up to 25% no matter what this calendar year).  Accordingly, there are still ways to get extra cash at various points along the way, if that were to be needed, preferred, or just prudent preparations for the future that is far from certain no matter how comfy many of us might end up finding ourselves in terms of various allocations and reallocations that we have made along the way, too.

Ok.  enough of my getting into your business.. yet surely, we are talking about this kind of a topic in a public thread, so ideas of prudence, practicality and preparations are for others too who may also be in similar situations of deciding when to shave off and how much to shave off under what circumstances.