Quote from: buwaytress on Today at 10:11:43 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 26, 2021, 06:42:13 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on November 26, 2021, 02:17:15 PM

...and I've become so normalised that 1000% in a month is still on the cards for me.

I know that we have seen outrageous scenarios to the upside in bitcoin, too.. but 1,000% in a month is just not in any of the normie cards... even though it would be in fantasylandia cards...

I am not sure if I need to elaborate..

I was being tongue-in-cheek in my post, as was responding to someone else's 1000% tongue in cheek, but no I've not quite made the move to fantasialand despite all my deepest wishes Wink

so no need to elaborate haha!

Never mind 10x but even 4x in a month to me would not be a normie move for sure (and I will say quite firmly though normal is absolutely relative and even though I haven't seen 10000% move for Bitcoin in my lifetime active, and as you say, a 2x move in a month would already be a signal screaming for everyone to be cautious).

Tempered against that, for me to reach my prediction now I almost need a 2x move in 10 days, I would need to be visiting fantasialand but I'm all checked out for now, and waiting to see if LoyceV's latter comments on December FOMO could come through.

Meanwhile for the next 10 days, these are the guys I'm looking at the most now:

Quote from: LoyceV on June 26, 2021, 08:08:02 PM

233. $50,000 JanEmil
234. $51,000 Mbitr
235. $52,000 shahzadafzal
236. $53,300 Tytanowy Janusz
237. $54,545 mole0815
238. $54,666 mikeywith
239. $55,700 Lafu
240. $57,777 Kylapoiss
241. $58,683 Altryist
242. $60,000 vapourminer

I agree that your prediction of $102,345 was pretty reasonable at the time that the predictions were being made, but surely it is seeming nearly impossible to reach in the remainder time for the game ... and even it might be a bit difficult to reach before the end of the calendar year since it seems that historically we have tended to get a bit of a ramping up before getting those kinds of UPwards price moves... and our recent activities have been pushing down.. so surely somehow momentum would need to change.. even a violent wick down or something could end up causing some kind of a BIG move up yet even those subsequent moves up can sometimes take some time to play out.. .. such as our 3.5x move up in April 2019 that took three months to play out from $4,200 to $13,800... but we did have a 12 hour BTC price rise on October 25, 2019 from $7,200-ish to $10,200-ish (which would be about 40%) that was all given back to the market over then subsequent 30 days with a correction back down to $6,500-ish.

For sure, BIGGER BTC prices does cause some needs for BIGGER players to be in the market (or even the leveraged products to end up getting liquidated) for the BTC prices to end up moving so greatly in such short periods of time, and personally I do believe that the overall BTC market does continue to have the ability for exponential price changes (even to the UPside) in a relatively short period of time.

Let's get back to 10x.. since that is such a lovely number.. think about 10x from here and we would end up having BTC prices going from $55k-ish to $550k-ish.. and how long would be consider for that to be reasonable to play out? 1, 2 or 3 quarters? For me, 2 quarters seems doable... and 3 quarters almost would seem as if some of our currently existing and credible BTC price prediction models of stock to flow and four year fractal would be getting pushed to some kind of questionable limit in terms of their applicability.. even though our exponential s-curve adoption model that is based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles would still remain quite applicable in terms of recognizing a BTC price exponential period of something like 10x that might end up dragging out 3-ish quarters from now.

For sure the best that we have are quasi-educated guesses concerning what seems feasible even if there might end up being some surprise aspects regarding how BTC price movements end up playing out and what we might believe are reasonable in terms of their playing out - even accounting for potential outrageous scenarios (preferably to the upside, but outrageous could go in either direction, sad to admit).