Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

The last time BTC went up 10x was from the March 2020 lows to the beginning of this year. It took about 9 months, but the March 2020 lows were only that low due to a crash that caused the price to decline (and quickly mostly recover) by around 50-60% in a matter of days. If you remove that few-day window when BTC was trading in the $3k range, it took almost two years for bitcoin to trade below $6k (may 2019) until it hit $60k (March 2021).

More or less it could be fair to use $6k as a base, since we spent a decent amount of time bouncing around $6k... but it seems problematic to use $6k as a base for May of 2019 - because largely BTC prices were in the midst of a run during that time.. starting from round $4,200 on April 1, 2019.. passed through $6k on its way up to $13,800 and then corrected back down to $6k on at least a few more occasions... maybe we could also suggest that the summer 2020 passing through $6k could be a charitable read to bouncing off of $6k to get a 10x within about 11 months to a year-ish.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

I don't think bitcoin has gone down 90% from any peak in the last 5 years, but it has gone down by a lot.

Either you are being blind or you are being disingenuous when you are making such non-representative claims.

Look at the 19,666 December 2017 top, and then calculate the $3,122 bottom in December 2018. That gives you about a 84% correction, and even if we calculate again to the flashcrash bottom of $3,850 in March 2020, that still gets you down nearly to 80%.. so even if technically there is some correction to assert that no 90% bottom has been reached, it is just a bullshit point because you are failing/refusing to actually grapple with 84% and 80% spikes down.. and yeah that spike down in December 2018 lasted for at least 3.5 months (hovering between about $3,700 and $4,100 so surely in touch to continue to threaten breaking down rather than UP, even though by April 1, 2019 we did get a breaking up from about a $4,200 base at that time.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

As mentioned, it went down from just under $9k to the mid $3k range in March 2020.

That is factually true.. but I don't know if such chosen numbers are representative of much of anything except for a short lived macro liquidity event.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

It went down ~45% from May to June of this year.

I calculate about 56% from $64,895 to $28,600. and yeah, it threatened going down again for a couple of months through June and July because it did not really go up during that time and continued to hover in the lower $30ks.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

It went down around 55% from December '18 to February '19 (it bottomed out in December '18 being down ~85% from the previous peak).

Ok... you do recognize the 85% correction from the peak. Great.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

If you lower the threshold to going up 5x, bitcoin last did that from September '20 to February of this year (5 months). It previously went up 5x from August '17 to December '17 (5 months).

Fair enough.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

There have obviously been plenty of 2x increases, and 50% drops over the past 5 years.

It does not help when you seem to be bouncing around all over the place, so your thesis seems to be getting lost, no? Is there a thesis to what you are saying?

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

In general, I think a lot of the drops tend to be swift, although often it will take some time for the bottom to be reached. On the other hand, at the end of week 1 of a massive uptick in price, we have generally not yet seen the local high.

When this thread was opened, BTC was trading in the ~$31k range. I don't think it would have been crazy to say the price would go up 5x from the date the thread opened to when the contest ends.

Fair enough.

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 27, 2021, 10:15:37 PM

The contest is far from over. There are things happening in financial markets right now that make me believe that we will see a lot of volatility in the coming weeks. I would not be surprised to see bitcoin go up 2-3x from local lows, nor would I be surprised to see a massive drop in the price. The question remains however where the local low is going to be located.

Another fair enough point if you are attempting to focus on how low we might go from here... so yeah.. focusing on down from here (whether referring to the December 7 date) or even down from here by the end of the year.. could be an interesting point. There do seem to be some struggles in getting more and more down, but surely I would not be asserting that I have any clue when down is over... even though there is likely support in the lower $50ks.. and support in the $46ks and then support in the lower $30ks.. from there who knows? It had seemed pretty certain that our $28,600 bottom was in once we had gone above $46k in early August 2021...and even if sub $40k was briefly visited it had seemed that odds were pretty damned decent that our $28,600 bottom was in... so who is to say if there is much of any chance of getting down to challenging such bottom again, which might end up causing the end of this particular bullrun.. and I would not rule out the end of this particular bullrun even if the odds of such seem to be in the minority at the moment.. perhaps less than 40%-ish..

Quote from: mikeywith on Today at 12:20:07 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 27, 2021, 06:49:17 PM

Let's get back to 10x.. since that is such a lovely number.. think about 10x from here and we would end up having BTC prices going from $55k-ish to $550k-ish.. and how long would be consider for that to be reasonable to play out? 1, 2 or 3 quarters? For me, 2 quarters seems doable...

I hope you are joking, I was going to ask if you meant "years" and not "quarters", but then even that doesn't change much, because $550k BTC in 2 years is just ... wishful thinking, even the very generous S2F model is predicting 550k by Q2 of 2025, I am as pretty bullish on BTC I just think that having unrealistic and unsustainable predictions serves no purpose.

I am not joking, and I think that I am being realistic. My name is not PlanB, either.. even though I do lend considerable credence to his outlines. Seems that I am not talking about probable; I was referring to doable.. kind of like potential best-case scenarios.

I had already provided you links to my assignment of probabilities for timing and also for quantities of UPpity.

I am not sure if I should tweak the below numbers, but these were my numbers on October 30. I cannot really see any subsequent developments to cause me to change my numbers beyond perhaps .5% to 1% here or there.. I am not sure.. I would have to go through them with some kind of detailed attempts at pondering to consider if any of them have changed much if any.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 30, 2021, 07:17:47 PM

above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million - nearly most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds

$650k to $800k - aggressively bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds

$450k to $650k - Optimistically highly bullish - about 7.75% odds

$200k to $450k - Moderately highly bullish - about 15.5% odds

$100k to $200k - mediocre bullish - about 16.5% odds

$80k to $100k - relatively bearish (not too bullish) - about 6% odds

$67k to $80k - the remainder of deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 4.5% odds

down from here ($67k as the top) - most bearish - but possible - about 42.5% odds

If you add up my numbers you will see that I have odds of supra $650k for this cycle at about 7.25%... so maybe odds for supra $550k would not be much more than 10%-ish.

I discuss how I got some of these numbers (surely partly just the best I can do based on what I think to be possible and attempts at fair assignments of odds).

I don't see how my numbers are fantasy or unrealistic or any of the claims that you are attempting to put me in, even if you would likely assign those numbers/probabilities different than me.