Quote from: viperjbm on October 21, 2011, 05:35:55 PM

Wow... that's way off base. So I assume your from the fairy brigade that doesn't realize that history repeats itself time and time again? My ideas are insane only if that is your belief... however even in your own post you semi-agreed you just qualified my statement with your own time frame.

Exactly. I think in the near term those scenarios are highly unlikely. Nothing is impossible. An undetected long orbit asteroid could hit Earth tomorrow and wipe out all life but that is rather IMPROBABLE. So while growth may not be expontential forever it seems probable that will continue in the near term.

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The advent of Gallium Arsinide chips that can be produced cost effectively will likely keep this law alive for some time, but if limited to Silicon chips we could be hitting a technology breakthrough barrier sooner than you might imagine since Silicon chips have physical electrical properties that limit how far they can take us.

We have at least 4 die shrinks before that happens. That combined with other efficiency improvements (die reorganizations, yield improvements, production effciency gains, etc) means computing power likely will continue to increase exponentially for at least next two decades. Moore's law has been declared dead many times in the past and yet it still remains

So as I originally stated I think the most PROBABLE scenario is that we continue to have exponential growth for near term. Any economic model should be based on the most probable scenario dot the possible but improbable chance that we see the end of civilization as we know it.