Quote from: philipma1957 on December 13, 2021, 11:07:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 13, 2021, 10:58:13 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 13, 2021, 10:08:27 PM

Quote from: Biodom on December 13, 2021, 09:42:25 PM

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

Holy covid-19 has radically altered the entire worlds economy it has altered this cycle so much that in effect there is no true predictablitly.

Well, it is your choice if you want to believe that bitcoin is so correlated to various macro-economic matters such as Covid or various recent or ongoing economic responses to covid.

There are many of us who have been involved in bitcoin a decently long time who either reject such correlations to various contemporary macro happenings or try not to get too wrapped up into various correlations that likely do not exist even close to as much as mainstream media and other disinformational sources of information seem to want to lead us to believe.

Yes, you can zoom out and you can see that there may well be times of short-term bitcoin price correlations with various macro-dynamics in the world, but if you cannot see, appreciate that there is more going on in bitcoin than some of those seemingly short-term price correlations.

And, if you recognize the validity and credibility of some of the other bitcoin price appreciation models you might learn to not put so much weight into either claims of correlation to such macro factors, even if you might be able to see them on the charts for various short periods of time. There is a need to zoom out in order to NOT get distracted by some of these shorter term claims of correlation.

You have been in bitcoin long enough that you should have figured out some of these matters by now, and even the fact that you are into bitcoin mining (and surely knowledgeable about the mining topic in a variety of ways) would cause some of us to presume that you would not have been so easily mislead into those kinds of correlation presumptions.

Of course, your history also shows that you had failed/refused to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past, and several times you have both acknowledged your failure/refusal to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past and you have even proclaimed that you have fixed some of your erroneous presumptions of the past and have become more aggressive in respects to your current bitcoin accumulation and investing, but surely on a regular basis you tend to show that you remain somewhat luke warm in regards to your own confidence levels in terms of bitcoin's upside potentials and even what seems to be its asymmetrical bet that is not exactly correlated to a variety of mainstream current happenings.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 13, 2021, 11:07:47 PM

BTW most efforts to predict are and will be futile.

Of course you can think that and you can continue to fail/refuse to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP. One way of failing/refusing to prepare for UP is to not buy/accumulate enough, and another way is to sell too much too early. Historically, we have seen that kind of conduct on a repeated basis.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 13, 2021, 11:07:47 PM

It not that no cycle is a fact it is that the cycle is twisted and stretched by factors larger and bigger then a standard model of cycles.

Hopefully you are not failing/refusing to adequately and sufficiently prepare again.. Yes, I have seen that you have been buying on a daily basis for the past month or so and plan to continue to do it.. so there is no way to really know your situation as well as you know it...

And, surely, we should realize that even if BTC's price action does not go up as much as expected in the next quarter or even few quarters, I doubt that it would be prudent to expect that the cycles are broken, but hey, you can believe whatever you like.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 13, 2021, 11:07:47 PM

or not. As you say.

I am not going to prematurely negate the best models that we have, and surely we should be taking any model with a decently large grain of salt and both financially and psychologically, we have our own personal responsibilities to be sufficiently and adequately prepared for either BTC price direction..

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 13, 2021, 11:41:02 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on December 13, 2021, 11:27:08 PM

Quote from: Biodom on December 13, 2021, 09:42:25 PM

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.

Too many people looking at inflation and thinking "I'd better keep hold of my filthy fiat as I'm not going to be able to buy as much with it" rather than "I'd better buy something worth holding with my filthy fiat before the government makes it worthless", I suspect.

yep which is why you need to develop a fiat to btc ratio that makes sense for you.

I am older so we are set up as below

The wife is 100% fiat.

I am 80% BTC .

And each year I am gaining on the wife with my btc. net value as compared to her fiat + house net value.

It seems that I should not be accusing you as being underallocated in bitcoin then....

This is the part that can be so difficult when trying to figure out both the level of allocation and also the extent to which some reallocation needs to take place.

I would not count house as cash.. and I would not count other investments, such as equities to be cash either, even though they are very connected to some of the ideas about no place to store value and that the dollar is losing value... so yeah, people are putting their dollars into real estate and into equities... Of course for any newbie, I would be recommending to get off of zero and get to 1-10% into bitcoin, and so if any of us is in bitcoin for a while, even if we might have started out on the higher end of the 1-10% initial investment range, I had not ever really recommended reallocating out of bitcoin in any meaningful way as long as the increase in the value from the bitcoin was due to price appreciation.. however, if bitcoin were to be your only investment asset besides dollars, equities, property or some other asset classes, then there may well be some justifications to diversify somewhat out of bitcoin so that all of your eggs are not in one basket... but yeah, anyone that is already 80% in bitcoin or maybe even presumably 40% in bitcoin if they are balancing out with their spouse's investments then surely it is harder to figure out ways that they might not be allocated properly or not allocated sufficiently in BTC...

Maybe there is some kind of a need to mention my own allocations, again?

For me, an allocation of around 13.5% in BTC in late 2014 had gone into the mid-80%'s in BTC in late 2017, and maybe into about around 45% in BTC during the lower parts of the 2018 crash and even the March 2020 liquidation event may have well caused my allocation in BTC to dip below 50%, so if I do a kind of quickie attempt at an assessment currently, then I might be able to say that in April 2021, my allocation in BTC likely was around 91%, and the drop in May through July brought my allocation down to about 87%, and recently it was back up to around 91% and even currently the percentage might be around 89% in BTC... so yeah, it is hard to say what others should do because I had frequently proclaimed that since 2013 my BTC investment had gone up several times, like maybe more than 40x to 70x depending on the measuring point, but all of my traditional investment may have gone up around 60% during that same time. So the BTC has outperformed all of the other investments, and even if I were to assert that I could have comfortably lived off all of the other non-BTC investments, the fact that the BTC amounts to around 9x more than all of those other investments in the event that we are considering an allocation in the ballpark of 90/10 currently to constitute 9/1.