Quote from: Torque on Today at 02:34:25 PM

Ok, that's it. I've had it.

After all Covid discussion here was forced, yes FORCED off this WO thread because people didn't like it discussed here and moved into Bob's off-topic thread, now pro-vaxxers are allowed to bring it back to be discussed here? And to get sympathy, merits, and fawned over?

Surely you seem to be reading too much into some kind of supposed biasness..

Yeah.. people are out to get you Torque...

Fuck Bawb's thread... .. at least to the extent that some ways of discussing covid are surely related to bitcoin.. and various shenanigans that seem to be happening around various economic and policy decisions and just a lot of weirdness going on out there in terms of how some of the behaviors of people seem to make it easier for policy makers to do whatever the fuck they like because of what is seeming to be more and more exaggerated as a pandemic.. and that is not even my trying to take away from the fact that there may be a decent amount of evidence of additional health issues and the filling up of hospitals or whatever other various ramifications there might be in terms of death and illnesses from people who end up getting sick from the virus or some other cause such as from the vaccine or some snake oil treatments that might be out there.

sure there may be some ways that the virus is not connected to bitcoin, but there surely are a lot of ways that it seems to be played in a variety of ways that relates to what's happening in bitcoin... so surely, I will agree with you Torque that it seems way to strict to be suggesting that the virus is not connected with bitcoin.. but surely some of your ways of discussing it seem to get way too much into the health aspects of it rather than some ways of connecting the matter with bitcoin.. but whatever, I don't really want to quibble about that.. because you can do what you want in terms of framing...

Maybe there are also more than the economic ramifications and the various control of the people aspects... that end up relating to bitcoin.... There are likely people on all sides of the political spectrum that wonder how various systems can stay in place to pay people to not work.. and gosh I am not really opposed to some kinds of social welfare including social welfare of access to health treatments, but many folks are likely bothered by such long periods of people seeming to get a lot of pay that seems to disincentivize them to work.. and. any of those can become really deep subjects depending on how they are framed.. and the extent to which they are related to bitcoin might be a matter in terms of which aspects are discussed or how presented.

Sure, if we are strictly talking about whether vaccines are effective and matters like that, then maybe in those kinds of circumstances the framing of the topic is not very related to bitcoin. Hard to know.. and maybe too much virus talk does seem as if we are distracted from talking about the walls and matters that are more clearly of shared interest for this thread specifically.

Quote from: Torque on Today at 02:34:25 PM

This was supposed to be neutral ground to talk about Bitcoin and other world happenings. Complete hypocrisy and bullshit.

That's not exactly true.. I mean you seem to be getting a bit worked up about nothing..

Quote from: Torque on Today at 02:34:25 PM

If so, I'm completely done with the WO. Will never post here again.

Rage quit.. Where have we heard that before?

Of course, it is your choice what the fuck you want to do and if you find that it is more helpful to you are not to be participating in a thread like this one.

Quote from: Torque on Today at 02:34:25 PM

I've been thinking about leaving anyway, as I've seen the participation falling off for years now.

Oh?

Quote from: Torque on Today at 02:34:25 PM

And it's not like there is anything ever new here: either you're already a believer in Bitcoin and are a HODLer, you're a shit poor daytarder, or you're a shill and a troll.

That's a pretty superficial reading regarding what is going on here... makes you sound like a troll if you are going to summarize what is going on here in that kind of a way.

Quote from: aesma on Today at 04:11:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 04, 2021, 02:26:18 AM

Quote from: aesma on December 03, 2021, 09:29:34 PM

He means below 100$ surely ?

Doesn't make sense though. 10K$ might happen if some major event causes it, like a big whale getting arrested and the authorities getting the coins, something like that.

100$, that would be another kind of major : a successful attack on BTC, killing it. Buying at that price wouldn't make sense then, as it would be worthless, in fact you wouldn't even know if you were really getting the coins you would be buying.

You seem to not understand BTC too well if you believe that $10k or sub-$10k is meaningfully feasible.

But, hey, you do you.

Didn't you buy BTC at 9000$ a few weeks ago ? Maybe I remember wrong.

At the time that the fluke on BinanceUS happened the BTC price was around $64k, and the price spiked down to $8,800 or something like that. My buy orders on that particular exchange had only gone down to $42k, even though I had orders on other exchanges at that time that went down to $24k, and currently my orders go down to $20k.

In March 2021, I had outstanding buy orders on various exchanges that went down to $9k, but I also had some somewhat elective cashflow issues that caused me to remove buy orders between about $9k and $13k, and later in the year, between May and July, I had some additional somewhat discretionary issues that had contributed to me removing most of the additional buy orders between $13k and $20k.

Furthermore, I may well end up moving some more of my buy orders between $20k and $30k.. I am still considering the matter, even though it would probably be better to be slow about it and to figure out some other ways to manage the matters to allow the 208-week moving average to move up to those prices, and currently the 208-week moving average is at a little less than $18.5k.. and the slope of the 208-week moving average coming up seems to have flattened a wee bit.

Maybe we are talking past each other a bit because I really do not see major issues for guys to keep buy orders down to low prices and even to have buy orders below locations to which they believe it feasible for the BTC price to go.

But having buy orders going down remains only ONE of the strategies to attempt to manage your BTC holdings, and surely some of the choices related to BTC holdings management is going to involve determinations regarding where you are at in your bitcoin journey.. and if you are in early stages of BTC accumulation, then your picture will be different as compared to if you have already reached over-accumulation levels.. so in that regard, it may well pay off to attempt to assess what someone is saying in regards to where s/he is at.. and if such person is already decently stocked up on BTC then it likely does not hurt to have some of those kinds of low ball orders.

There are some people who are not adequately stocked up on BTC and are advocating such low buy order placement tactics, and there are people who sell their BTC and hope to accumulate more BTC through such sales. I do not suggest that people engage in behaviors to fuck around with the BTC market like that until they are clearly overallocated and have more options or if they engage in such practices then they do so in a very limited way and emphasize DCA and lump sum investing before either getting into buying on the dip or at least aggressive buying on the dip strategies that seem to be way too short-sighted in terms of inadequately preparing for UP.. and taking chances with such a great asset like bitcoin that you should not be playing around with downside bets when there are such great asymmetric upside potentials.

Quote from: aesma on Today at 04:11:40 PM

BTC dipping that low is unlikely, I agree with you, but not impossible. If a whale wanted to make it happen for some reason, selling say 50 000 BTC simultaneously across all major exchanges, that could do it. Now, I haven't researched this affirmation, you'd need to look at order books, estimate what bots would do, how much fiat/stablecoins are on exchanges that could add new orders. And also, what would be the reaction of others, it's likely to cause a panic, adding sell orders.

Ok... fair enough that sometimes there can be anomalies on the less liquid exchanges, and we have seen that several times in bitcoin's history.. furthermore, we have seen blackswan events that seem to occur a wee bit more than what they should be statistically likely to happen... but still I hardly even suggest that normies should be playing these kinds of games... that is called gambling... In other words, there is no problem to attempt to prepare for UP and DOWN scenarios including attempting to prepare for extreme UP and DOWN scenarios, but that would not mean that any of us should be putting a lot of resources into scenarios that may well have less than 5% chances of happening, and maybe even lower chances than that.

Of course, each of us are not going to assign probabilities in the same way, and surely some people are going to be more correct in their assessments of probabilities, so each of us is merely tasked with doing the best probabilities assessments that we can and to realize that we might make mistakes and maybe even retaining enough flexibility in our own systems in order that we are able to tweak our strategies from time to time in accordance with changes in our perceptions regarding probabilities (and sure sometimes changes in the facts, too).

In other words, it seems the better of practices to assign your allocations of resources to your assessment of probabilities, so if you assess the bottom of this price correction to be:

sub $10k = 2%

$10k-$20k = 6%

$20k to $30k = 12%

$30k to $40k = 18%

$40k to $46k = 23%

Total percentages for downspike scenarios: 61%

then hopefully you are able to line up your BTC buy orders in accordance with your assignment of probabilities accordingly. So of course your numbers might be different than the ones that I have described above.. and maybe those are approximations of my own? Don't get me wrong, the fact that I might concede a down spike having 61% odds of happening would not mean that I would necessarily consider any of these to be sustainable or even BTC's likely direction, since I still consider that we are in a bull market, but there could be some questions regarding how much more downward movement might happen, how long it might last, and then if such additional down does end up happening, then does such down change the odds of more down or take us out of the bull market after a certain price range or duration in being at such price range.