Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Frankly, I don't get what he is saying... What means clarify "100k avg this cycle & regression analysis" ?
The only thing I can take away is:
Within 1sd range is sufficient, now. Which essentially means no need for a 100k average anymore.
I give him that: the model would still be useful in some ways.
But judging from my basic statistics skills, this s2f model can not be valid with an avg <100k.
Seems to me in order dodge that problem, he now allows a max error of 1sd.
I ask myself: why is he clinging to this model so intensely? Does he fear a loss of reputation?
I'd think moving goal posts constantly harms reputation far more than admitting a model's failure. And the 100k avg hasn't even been invalidated yet...
I conclude... he seems far more bearish than before. Which is a great basis for a 2022 face ripping BTC volcano explosion
Btw
Happy Christmas guys n gals
I think this is basically what he is doing:
In the past he said two things:
1. If it's not 100k by 12/21 then the model is broken.
2. If it does not have an average of 100k for this cycle top, then it's invalidated.
So #1 is done... well, it will be in 1 week.
But #2 is still possible, but becoming more fantastical by the day.
Of course I would LOVE to see #2 come true, and in that case the longer it takes to get there the funner it would be.
In my opinion, he is busted on his December prediction. I think he should own that bit, and concentrate on figuring out what is either wrong with the model, or his interpretation of it.
I agree.
#2 would be nice, but I doubt it as an average, even if we popped to 200k for a short time.
However, in order to save his ass in advance, he already threw #2 out of the window as a criteria for invalidation. Now, he is ok, as long as price stays within 1sd.
For me he has def. gone too far with his (childish) goal posting. I cannot take him serious anymore.