Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 08:32:01 AM

Quote from: Syke on Today at 08:24:10 AM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 06:54:46 AM

Sadly, I also feel the same. It would have been so much better for him to be a man about it and admit defeat. But instead of facing the facts, he seems to be moving the goalposts on every failure. OK, he may now be selling fewer PlanB hats, but that's his own problem. Bitcoin is fully alive and kicking last time I checked.

For me, the best "model" is the White Paper itself. Halving = supply reduction by half / 4-year period. That's enough for me to know for a fact that "it's going up forever, Laura!" That's a qualitative assessment that's good enough for me. As for quantitative, short-term, Crystal Ball^TM predictive models, I'll leave those to the resident magicians, purely for amusement purposes, with the occasional collateral damage (read: mindrust events caused by masterluc).

No plan is flawless. We haven't developed psychohistory yet. When the model breaks, adjust it.

Yes, but his Twitter posts show arrogance and inability to stand up to his own earlier tweets about his S2F model being invalid if price does not reach $100k in 2021. In that sense, one could take any equation, adjust it to fit any short-term trend, keep adjusting ad-infinitum and call it a model of everything.

Edit (post-Syke's merit): Having said the above, I don't mind PlanB's work, it has its purpose and value, but IMHO, should not be taken very seriously. He's essentially attempting to predict a non-deterministic, noisy system being affected by more parameters that anyone can process. Short-term predictions of such systems are Crystal Ball^TM material in my book. It's good as a Hopium source though, and I've used it in the past to get my "fix", but it seems the drug is not as potent as it used to be...

I do agree that sometimes PlanB has been too strict in both his assertion of what needs to happen and also what would break his model. His model is still good and even his discussion of the model does have tendencies to both educate people and attempt them to better understand where we have been, where we are at and where we might be going even if he sometimes seems way too locked into various things that have to happen blah blah blah.

I think that the discussion of 1 or 2 deviations from the mean is helpful, and even some considerations regarding how long we might be able to stay 1 or 2 deviations from the mean and to allow the model to still be valid or a justification that either the mean has to come down or that some of the various presumptions in the model are not correct (that still may well fall quite far from short of actually invalidating the model).

I think that it is a good thing that PlanB continues to comment and defend and even seem to back away from aspects of his model on a fairly regular basis, even if people accuse him of moving the goal posts in terms of some of the seeming contradictions in his ongoing explanations.. and I see no reason for him to give up.. and not even close to any need for him to give up on the model..

Maybe if we get quite a bit into the third year of the post halvening (this halvening period - which third year would start around April 2022) and we are still below $100k and if we had not even gone above $100k by then, there might be some needs to change the "as is" aspect of the model...

...so for me, we still quite far from the model being even close to broken.. even if it may well be pretty obviously underperforming in the past couple of months and even though there are a lot of folks whining about the BTC price NOT being high enough blah blah blah.. and if some of these whiners were only relying on the S2F model for their BTC price expectations, then maybe they are going to end up selling all or some of their lillie fiends, and then find out that the model was NOT as far off as they had perceived it to have been and in other words pretty damned close enough in terms of horseshoes and handgrenades and no need to hit the exact spot... . even if such model had seemed to have had been so very far off blah blah blah..

. and for example, if we ONLY end up experiencing a halvenigng average of $80k rather than $100k or some other price average that ends up falling quite below $100k.. which seems like a BIG SO FUCKING WHAT to me... but hey.. who am I besides a PlanB (at least his model) quasi-sycophant... and I could give a ratt's ass about what peeps might conjecture about my too much willingness to continue to defend PlanB and his model and his supposed goal post shifting whine whine whine... .