Quote from: Wekkel on Today at 01:15:24 PM

JJG, I don’t know what has gotten into you but damn, I like it.

Short and snappy.

Calling out bullshitters.

Weeding out faulty thinking.

Demeaning hidden socialists.

I’d love to see this continue in 2022.

Happy New Year to everyone Grin

Thanks, but I am thinking that such phenomena is likely not sustainable.

Happy New Year to you too.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 05:49:05 PM

@jjg "A false irrelevant and unimportant indicator that you would like to cause to be relevant, when it no doesn't mean shit."

I think it is quite important, and if you think that it doesn't than you are delusional. To go in one year from 73% to 40% is not nothing.
In actuality, i was actually cheering it UP, not down and you got enraged by a mere mentioning of the word. What's wrong with you?

Still irrelevant, even if you want to reiterate how you believe it to be important and that you are cheering for our own good..blah blah blah... does not cause it to become more relevant than its already irrelevant status.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 05:49:05 PM

@jjg Regarding our bet-I would like to call your bullshit on this.

Here are my odds and conditions:

Since you give 25% to above 200K, I would bet 0.4 btc that it won't exceed 200K until 1pm EST Sept 1, 2022 and YOU would bet 0.1 btc that btc would be above 200K at some point between now and the date mentioned here earlier.
4:1 odds in YOUR favor.
I don't care betting on exceeding 30-65K range and I would not accept any other conditions.

uie-pooie says what?

Last I checked, 3rd quarter goes through the end of September not the beginning of September. Aside from the amounts, which I already stated that I was not too excited about your earlier suggested amount of 0.31 BTC, I am not that much more encouraged about your reduction of that to 1/3 (on my end)...

Your supposed charitable 4 to 1 odds are like around my break even odds, so why the hell would I want to engage in a break-even odds bet? do people actually take bets with break even odds?. .. especially when you had been putting 99 to 1 odds on a similar framing of the thing... so uie-pooie want to place all of the potential surplus value of our differing perspectives into your hands..... and sure maybe I am feeling uncomfortable about the exactness of 25%, and so in that regard, I am more inclined to attempt to take advantage of some of the surplus that comes from your assertion of 99% odds that $200k would not happen within 12 months.. didn't you initially say you dweeb?...

So I think a lot of this whole matter, from my perspective, would be challenging the outrageousness of your assertion that the odds are ONLY 1% in a year, and then you are not even close to wanting to stand behind anything close to your own assertion but trying to get the best of the scenarios and surplus value from my quite likely way more reasonable assertions.. or if you really believe that I am being outrageous, then even splitting the baby in the middle of 1/20 odds or 1/40 odds should not bother you since you conceive the whole matter as less than 1% odds.. .. and surely if you were giving me 1/99 odds, you surely would be a whole hell of a lot less inclined to be wanting to bet .4 BTC on your end when 99/1 odds would cause me to only have to put up 0.004 BTC to cover such a 1/99 odds bet, right?

So I already asserted that I may well be willing to compromise in terms of attempting to figure out ways to split the surplus value rather than your seeming to strive to take any such surplus value for ur lil selfie.

So, don't be trying to assert that you are trying to call my supposed "bullshit" when you are trying to shave all of the surplus value in seemingly three ways (maybe even four?) regarding 1) the dates ( 1a) was that a mistake on the end of the quarter? and 1b) did you not originally assert 12 months for the BTC price not going above $200k? not that an additional 3 months changes a whole hell of a lot for me, but you are the one who originally proclaimed no supra $200k for 12months.. originally you said "none at all" then later you downgraded that to 1%), 2) the odds of your wanting to harp on my 25% assertion when you are the one who stated 1%.. so there is a pretty damned big difference between 1% and 25%, last time I checked and 3) the amount of money at stake that I already suggested that I did not need any such bet to be a lot of money.. and you sticking with unnecessarily high bet amounts.. which you persistently showing yourself as a dweeb..

Just to flesh out the aspect of the money, like I already suggested, I may be willing to agree to higher bet amounts if the odds were to be more acceptable.. and even though I would not mind holding you to somewhere in the ballpark of your original proclamation of 99/1 odds. Sure, I believe that I would be willing to compromise with your own assignment of odds in some kind of way.. and I am already saying that I am not that passionate to try to defend my own earlier assignment of 25%-ish odds.. because I do not consider my already existing odds to be outrageous yet, at the same time, I don't exactly feel passionate about if my assignment of percentages might be off by even 50% (such as having a variance in my odds of 12.5% or 37.5%), so probably in that regard, I would not start to feel inclined to even want to bet if I am not getting at least outside of some kind of a reasonable variance from my already asserted numbers.. such as getting more than 50% outside of my already assignment of probabilities.. and of course, it would be better to get even more than my variance.. especially since you had already stated numbers that I consider to be outrageous and that your own odds are ONLY 1% for a year for going over $200k.. how much variance off of your percentage do you need... apparently from your own harping on my assignment of 25%, you need something like 25x variance in order to feel comfortable.. or can you be a bit more solid in describing how much variance you might need, and then at that point, maybe we could split the difference from the point of figuring out our variance?

Anyhow, you are also easily just wanting to be stubborn about your supposed bet terms, even though I am going to attempt to try flexible about your own earlier stubborn assertions to keep open if we cannot figure out reasonable terms regarding the $200K question, then there still could be some room for your assertion that you believe that we are staying in $30k to $65k for the next 12 months, even though I can see that the differences in our assignments of probabilities to that seems to be quite a bit smaller, so we would not have as much to work with regarding that one, even though by definition supra $65k would end up playing out way sooner than any supra $200k question.