Quote from: Biodom on January 06, 2022, 05:43:48 PM

It's all true about no or diminishing cycles, but then it is difficult to find pivots.

Maybe go by oversold conditions, but you could still be off by quite a bit.
The best policy is to not sell much for a long time. It worked for AAPL, GOOGL, even MSFT and it should work even better for bitcoin.

If you are getting into comments about strategy, you tend to be a bit inconsistent, so you would not be a good source, even though you do say some decent things from time to time.

Surely, whether cycles exist or not, there might not be any kind of BIG difference in long-term financial strategies.. at least in terms of some imprudence that may well come from making any kinds of BIG sales of a portfolio in anticipation that the price is going down and in anticipation that you will be able to buy lower.

Nonetheless, the possibility of ongoing cycles should allow for some kinds of preparations that go beyond mere psychology. One thing that has tended to happen is that guys get really nervous in regards to how much their networth is rising on paper when the BTC price is going UP exponentially, so if they have not prepared for such an exponential rise - both psychologically and financially, then they may well end up engaging in too much emotionally motivated behaviors... so I would not even be arguing that any of us can completely get rid of the emotions that come from exponential moves in the BTC price (either direction), but if we fail/refuse to plan for such (even if it is of minority likelihoods), then we become more likely to panic or NOT to really have clearly prepared ourselves for such extremes.

Sure, it might not be as BIG of a deal if you are holding onto 20 coins from 2015, but if you had stocked up on coins somewhat aggressively and/or excessively (whether 50 BTC or 100 BTC or some greater amount), then you might be more inclined to shave some BTC off on the way up or to see some value in preparing yourself both financially and psychologically for such an exponential and outrageous toppening thing that could end up happening and then resulting in a kind of exponential and outrageous crashening.. even if you cannot tell if the UP is over or not and even if the whole idea of exponential UPs playing out may well be a minority theory.

By the way, part of the logical explanation why such seemingly outrageous blow off tops end up playing out is partly due to the length of time and the degree that the BTC price is kept down.. so if you look historically at BTC cycles in 2013 and 2017, you may well notice that BTC's price for the 2021 cycle is not even near to either the 2013 or the 2017 levels,.. so perhaps we might be able to argue something like a 16x top for this particular cycle, yet the 2013 and the 2017 tops were around 100x and 78x respectively. Yeah, sure of course, it could be time for bitcoin to start leveling out in terms of the extremes of UPpity.. but I continue to have my doubts, and you can believe whatever you like, and let's see what happens.

Again, yeah for some folks who have not really overstocked in BTC for whatever reasons, and they might ONLY have 20 BTC instead of 50 BTC, 100 BTC or some greater amount, then they might not feel as over-invested in BTC and willing to shave some off along the way UPpity.. if such continued periods of UPpity continue to happen as they have historically done.. and maybe we ONLY end up getting 40x or 50x for this cycle, rather than 100x or 78x, but 16x seems a wee bit of a departure.. at least to this cat.. and I am not totally opposed to some kind of minority theory such as the top is in playing out...or that we have a 1 to 2 year pause before going to the next ATH again.. just seems like a minority theory to me.. even though it is possible to happen.

Quote from: Biodom on January 06, 2022, 05:43:48 PM

All schemes that include buy/sell every thousand are pitiful.

That's quite the blanket statement... and for sure seems to be a jab at me... not that you hardly have any clue about what I am doing besides trying to pick it apart and to misrepresent the several aspects of the considered tradeoffs.

Quote from: Biodom on January 06, 2022, 05:43:48 PM

Buy in oversold conditions, sell (if you must) in overbought conditions.

This is probably part of the reason that you hardly have any coins.

For one DCA probably works a whole hell of a lot better to stock up on BTC without having to be some kind of technical analysis expert regarding what the fuck is oversold and what is overbought.

Furthermore any DCA strategy can be supplemented by lump sum investing and buying on dips, and for sure there should be needs to attempt to both tailor to your own situation including finances and psychology but also to make some overall assessments that include figuring out cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to plan, strategize and reallocate from time to time which may include the employment of trading or financial instruments.. even though trading and financial instruments are more advanced techniques and likely should not be employed until after getting a pretty good grasp over the power of more basic techniques including understanding and appreciating the asymmetric opportunity that seems to be present in bitcoin including that relatively modest investment amounts could end up in large levels of wealth (and arriving at fuck you status way sooner than otherwise feasible or possible through various traditional investments).

Quote from: Biodom on January 06, 2022, 05:43:48 PM

That said, those situations might still carry on for extra 20-30%, so achieving an absolute top/bottom is a rarity, but try we must.

Biodom's strategy: try to time absolute tops and bottoms... does not sound too good to me.. but hey, if that's what you want to do, it's your money... or lost opportunities when you have not adequately pee pared ur lil selfie for UP because you are too busy waiting for further dippenings that do not end up happening... which is another reason that you had not stocked more than 20 BTC since 2015...too busy waiting for a dip that does not end up happening.

Quote from: Biodom on January 06, 2022, 05:43:48 PM

Quote from: ivomm on January 06, 2022, 05:39:59 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on January 06, 2022, 05:06:53 PM

Quote from: ImThour on January 06, 2022, 04:54:52 PM

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology.

That escalated….. 10k talk etc…..

<snip>This sums up the behaviour of both the spot and the derivate traders. I'm sure their loss is tremendous, but they continue to believe doing the same thing over and over again will give different result at the end. This is just the definition of stupidity.

of course, because most of them are playing with "other people's money" (OPM).

Yeah.. put it on you, Biodom, to consider that there is some value to laud those kinds of techniques to leverage with other people's money... by the way, I am not against tactical and strategic use of leverage and debt, but you can get yourself into a whole ton of shit if you are gambling too much with leverage/debt... but hey, you do you...if you believe that aspiring to gambling with other people's money and playing around with sophisticated financial instruments is a comfortable way to attempt to live. Stress much?

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on January 06, 2022, 06:13:36 PM

[edited out]

***PS EDIT*** I want to seemingly contradict myself hugely by saying one other thing. I do still think a S-curve adoption/valuation supercycle event is a non-zero possibility. It really is a matter of how steep is that curve. Imagine if we see the last 18 months just repeat itslef over and over for about 7-10 years... see what I am saying? I am not sure if my opinion on the likelihood of this has changed in the last 6-8 months... hmm...

I am not completely in agreement with your ideas about the disappearance of the cycle or the disappearance of extremes, but surely you made your claims decently well.

It seems that my continuous point is that bearfucktwats do some of this to themselves by pushing the BTC price way too low for too long.. so then when it starts going up or gets past certain points, they surely cannot control it anymore and really are forced to go with the flow... whether we are referring to extreme UPward movements or extreme DOWNs.

Maybe it does not even matter if we call them cycles, but surely we have to see how they play out, rather than just proclaiming that if they did not happen by December 2021 or within a month or two thereafter, they are no longer applicable... and surely market sentiment is ONLY one aspect of whether we might enter into some kind of blow-off top at a time that might not be exactly anticipated or even easily stopped once it gets out of hand.

Regarding your questioning of whether an s-curve exists in bitcoin or will continue to exist.. sure it is already in existence.. and likely going to continue, even though sometimes it is difficult to see that you are in it while it is going on. Even if we take $100-ish as a base price (in 2013), 430x from there is not an s-curve?

come... spit... on.. .

You can choose to see it or not.. or you can hypothesize if it is part of the future.. blah blah blah... seems we are already in the midst of it and maybe the only question is whether we are at the bottom, middle or top... Probably more like the early stages, since bitcoin is likely 1,000x gold, which would be 10,000x from here rather than your assertion that we might only have 100x in us.. and suggesting the 100x might be ONLY a splurge.. and of course, I know that you are more bullish than that. #nohomo