Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Just thinking aloud here, god awful price. Really looks like someone is just trying to push the market down time and time again. In the mean time on-chain data is still pretty positive, how long can this divergence last I wonder. Keep thinking we should see a move in January at least, but the price isn't making much sense to me anymore.
I don't know, wasn't the 2013 top in November and the 2017 top in December, that would place the next top in January.
I'm not ready to give up the four year cycle theory just yet, If we still haven't had a blow of top in march I'll abandon it, but not before that.
If your "four year cycle theory" is based on the halving cycle, then you need to allow for the fact that the halvings aren't exactly four years apart AND that the subsequent highs and lows are taking longer and longer to take effect as the proportion of coins affected reduces.
See this thread, for a longer analysis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0
I will look at your thread in more detail a bit later... looks like you have laid out some good arguments...
Surely part of the issue is that King daddy is not exactly on a schedule, so you could have peaks that are further out like you seem to be arguing.. but you could also have peaks that end up closer in, too. The cycle, the supply and the physical price pressures that come from those dynamics surely seems to be a factor to account for, but surely not the ONLY factors, as many have argued in various ways to criticize if too much weight is placed only on the supply theories... again, I am very sympathetic to the supply theories being very influential, but quite a bit less sympathetic to any assertions that bitcoin is on any kind of schedule - even if it might appear to be the case when we look retrospectively.
For sure many of us expect more UPpity, but surely there are quite a few status quo financial/governmental incumbents who are incentivized to factually show the bitcoin UPpity theories to be broken and to cause some weak hands to sell more than they should too soon and cause others to either hesitate in coming into bitcoin or to fail/refuse to act to prepare their lil selfies for UP.
Of course, a lot of regulars in this thread (even forum perhaps?) have decent tendencies to be prepared for UP, whether our next peak comes in the coming 1-9 months, or if it has already occurred and might not happen until 1-3 years from now. Sooner would be better, and seems that we have decent odds for the 1-9 months theory, but we also know that if there is something close to infinite supply of fiat that could be put into existence that could be used to naked short bitcoin or to engage in other kinds of losing dollar practices to push the price of our lillie fiend DOWNity.. then there might need to be some other ways - of establishing price or even perhaps excluding some of the DOWNity vehicles from price discovery (good luck with that... but hey, even governmentally backed bodies sometimes have to back down when they lose credibility in one way or another...or they get called out/or shown to be manipulating behind the scenes while acting like it was someone else.. even some shitcoins or shitcoin projects may well be used in these kinds of ways...).
Bought the mofo dip.
Another 200 Big Mac Meals worth.
Another 200 Big Mac Meals worth.
How much is that ? Google tells me 5.99$ but I don't remember it being that low when I visited the US (don't know where you are).
That seems a reasonable question.. because I am actually seeing Big Macs listed as $3.99 in the USA in 2021 and the Big Mac meals as $5.99... I don't frequent McD's, so I am having some difficulties imagining their burger prices being that low...
The Big Mac index shows Big Macs as $5.65 in the USA, but also variance from $1.68 in Lebanon and $7.04 in Switzerland. The Big Mac index does seem like it might be more accurate than what is showing on Google.