Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on January 11, 2022, 01:42:40 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on January 11, 2022, 12:52:41 AM

Predictions of $1,000,000 (in today's dollars) are wishful thinking. I don't think it is economically possible for it to reach that price, except in a speculative bubble.

Sure, but they're talking about 2025-2030 which will definitely not have today's dollars.

Talking about inflated dollars is not useful. If the value of a dollar drops 99%, then a bitcoin will be worth 100x inflated dollars, but so will everything else. A bitcoin could become worthless and still be worth $1,000,000 in the future if $1,000,000 is even more worthless.

Consider the Venezuelan peso. In the last month, the price of a bitcoin in pesos has risen despite its own 40% drop in value because the value of a peso has dropped 50%. However, the bitcoin still buys less than it did a month ago because it is worth less (except in pesos), so its rise in price does not reflect reality. Using inflated prices is not useful because inflation distorts the measurement.

USD inflation has been about 7% over the last year. If you bought a bitcoin (worth $43k today) one year ago for $37k you would calculate a return of 16%, but your return would actually be only 8%, because of the 7% inflation. If you bought it 3 weeks later at $43k, you might claim that you are even, but you have actually lost 7%.

The only reasonable way to talk about future prices is in today's currency. We don't know what a dollar will be worth in the future, so we don't know what $1,000,000 will be worth. So, saying that the price of a bitcoin will be $1,000,000 in the future doesn't say anything useful unless they are today's dollars.