Quote from: cypherdoc on October 23, 2011, 02:13:57 PM

why can't you accept the fact that this is all in the eyes of the beholder? honestly, if investing was so easy, everyone would see the potential and the price would skyrocket w/o any speculator being able to make a profit. successful investing means spotting an opportunity when no one else sees it. sure, we bulls, could be wrong but we just as sure could be right based on an intuition you're just not seeing.

Here is the thing, Ill try to explain so maybe even you can understand. Speculating on future prices or value of things in the real economy is good. It helps establish a "true" price, it helps trade, it makes things more predictable, it can hedge risks etc.

However at some point, if speculation becomes bigger than the real world economy thats being speculated on, then you have a BIG problem, because speculators are no longer trying to predict real world changes in economy or finance, but are trying to predict what other speculators will predict. It doesnt take a genius to understand how this creates huge bubbles and bursts. This is precisely whats happening in the real world commodity markets (*), and bitcoin is a caricature of this, with speculation FAR FAR outpacing any realworld trade.

(*) Just saw this:
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=7492
Interesting parts start at 4 minutes.