Quote from: cAPSLOCK on Today at 09:07:57 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 08:52:57 PM

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting? are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200

I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?

sucks to be me.... Cry

My mind will be blown and my mouth will gape open if we reach sub 20k prices. But then my mouth will close and I will go back to doing what I am doing again. Bitcoin is hard to predict. I figure I am right somewhere around 1/2 the time.

Well, at the approximate rate that the 200-week moving average has been moving up (it has been at about 76.2% per year), it will be at about $26.5k in 6 months, and over $50k in the next 1.5 years...

This is what that looks like, approximately:

Start $     StartDate     % gain /time     Time     Coins/FU status
$110     1/24/14     38.10%     182.6     $2,000,000.00
208-week MA

   Date     MA-Price     gain/time     Coins/FUStatus
   7/25/14   $152     $42     13,165.69021131
   1/24/15   $210        $58        9,533.44693071
   7/25/15   $290        $80        6,903.29249146
   1/24/16   $400        $110        4,998.76357094
   7/25/16   $553        $152        3,619.66949380
   1/23/17   $763        $211        2,621.04959725
   7/25/17   $1,054        $291        1,897.93598642
   1/23/18   $1,455        $401        1,374.32004810
   7/25/18   $2,010        $554        995.16296024
   1/24/19   $2,775        $766        720.61039844
   7/25/19   $3,833        $1,057        521.80332979
   1/24/20   $5,293        $1,460        377.84455452
   7/24/20   $7,310        $2,017        273.60213940
   1/23/21   $10,095        $2,785        198.11885547
   7/25/21   $13,941        $3,846        143.46043119
   1/23/22   $19,253        $5,312        103.88155770
   7/25/22   $26,588        $7,335        75.22198241
   1/23/23   $36,718        $10,130        54.46921246
   7/25/23   $50,708        $13,990        39.44186275
   1/24/24   $70,027        $19,320        28.56036405
   7/24/24   $96,707        $26,680        20.68092980
   1/23/25   $133,553        $36,846        14.97532932
   7/24/25   $184,437        $50,884        10.84383007
   1/23/26   $254,707        $70,270        7.85215791
   7/25/26   $351,750        $97,043        5.68584932

Of course, it does seem likely that we would meet it at some point before 1.5 years - as it continues to move up.. and of course, its rate of going up is not guaranteed either.. even though several of us are on the same page that now does not seem to be the time to be meeting the 200-week moving average... or at least not any time soon... and hey, yeah, there are a lot of times that we end up getting surprised in bitcoinlandia both the to upside and the downside - even though many of us are still kind of appreciating that we have not been wrong in terms of overall Uppity that has tended to take years to play out.. .. not exactly on a schedule, but kind of looks like a schedule when we look at it historically.