Quote from: Biodom on January 23, 2022, 11:51:28 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 23, 2022, 11:35:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 23, 2022, 08:52:57 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on January 23, 2022, 06:23:56 PM

Quote from: lightfoot on January 23, 2022, 03:00:51 PM

Quote from: somac. on January 23, 2022, 11:18:21 AM

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD. wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%. Grin

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top. It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting? are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200

I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?

Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K.

A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs.

The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here.

Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels.

By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later.

Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far).

To clarify, I wasn't saying $10K-$15K isn't statistically possible, only that it's not statistically possible to have the same bear market as twice before; 85% correction, 1 year downtrend with 200 Week MA support as the low. For starters, it'd be way too obvious, but mainly because the 200 Week MA is at $20K now so -85% is way too far, if we are to think the same bear market draw down would happen again.

My point was for the "cycle traders" to realise that while November may well end up being a macro top for now, it also shows that the same type of bear market as twice before can't happen again, for what that is worth. Not that I stated it, but I otherwise see current support levels holding (as I said around $46k before it didn't). The hodler fundmentals of Bitcoin would have to dramatically change in order to see 6-12 month hodlers capitulating below $30K, given that the capitulation often comes form the 3-6 month crowd, not the 6-12 month. The 2-3 year hodlers (cycle traders) have already largely sold, somewhat predictably.

Price would have to make new ATH for the usual bear market recipe to occur basically, otherwise just like the current bull market hasn't been the same as previous, neither will the bear market if it comes.