Quote from: Biodom on January 23, 2022, 11:51:28 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 23, 2022, 11:35:10 PM

[edited out]

.imho the best scenario is a flat around 40-42K with oscillations of plus minus 10k above and below(ish).

Wow.. your best case scenario is pretty lame. Ever wonder why you fail/refuse to adequately prepare for UP? Part of the reason seems to be your lack of imagination regarding UPside scenarios... I suppose that you have been falling off your seat too.. for the whole time between about February and April that we went above $40k.. and then the second time around between about September and November was probably quite the shocker for you, too? No?

Quote from: Biodom on January 23, 2022, 11:51:28 PM

I still think that this is not a description of the bull market continuation, but something new.

We will see. We are still in the battle for the greatest wealth transfer in history, so don't get too lulled into some kind of a flat scenario.. which seems to be your tendency (except for times when you are willing to call the bottom.. remember when we were around $29k in July-ish and you called lower $20ks as if they were inevitable.. and also you stated that you would not be surprised to have a decent spike below that into the mid $10k-s.. something like $15.5k-ish, right?

Careful with trying to reinvent the wheel too much here with your seemingly out of touch theories and failing/refusing to account for 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal (except you said that ended in April) and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.

Quote from: Biodom on January 23, 2022, 11:51:28 PM

In fact, IF 64k was actually the "real" peak (and it does look like it on various momentum charts that Ben Cowen likes to show, for example), then the proposal that the bearish period would last until April of 2022 makes sense. Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far).

Yeah.. that's not totally unreasonable if you at least have some guidance in connection to your reluctancies regarding ongoing BTC UPside scenarios... but seems to me that you have been in that mindset (and seemingly inadequate upside preparations) several times already.. where you had been fighting the upside scenarios, and they end up happening anyhow.. in spite of your ongoing reservations. You frequently suggest that you have not been hurt financially by such, which seems quite implausible to me... for example, are you buying BTC now? most likely not... most likely you are waiting.. and sure that is your choice. Nobody is going to stop you from doing what you believe is best to protect you.. both financially and psychologically.

Quote from: icopress on January 23, 2022, 11:52:30 PM

➥ And finally, if you want to try your hand at bitcointalk history, take the Quiz.

That was a nice little quiz.. .and I only got a bit over half of the answers correct, so the questions raised some subjects that I had not really thought about before going through the quiz.