Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:00:48 PM

Maybe we all mix predictions with what we want? I still think that it is better to frame a prediction in terms of what you believe to be more likely to happen.. or even if any of us were to say that there is a 38% chance for x, a 30% chance for y and a 32% chance for z, then after we stated that, we might say, I prefer y.. at least we have framed the probabilities before stating the preference, and in that regard, there is a bit less mixing.. or at least you have stated both so we know what is your prediction and what is your preference, no?

This is most certainly true! In fact, I think it is fairly common to COMPLETELY twist what we want to believe with what we think will happen. In the area of markets, this is one thing all the prophets I admire have in common. That they know how to separate their emotions from their view of reality. The tendency to conflate ones wishes and fears with ones beliefs is a thing folks MUST overcome to be successful. And it can be expressed negatively and positively.

For example. I think a common mistake people MIGHT be making right now is based in a fear of repeating the last 4 years (again). My conversation with LFC is in this area. Although I think his belief has a rational basic I am also aware that the adherance of this belief may be because of fear. Just as the rejection of this belief may be because of a bias to bullishness.

Around here we all know that it is possible to let our fears/hopes get the better of us. Mindrust of often cited. And people have bet the whole farm on an alt with a narrative that resonates for them and lost everything as well. A couple famous WO members come to mind here, but I will refrain from naming them out of respect.

So far as the current circumstances go? I am having a hard time separating the likely scenarios from the ones I want (or am afraid of). We are currently at a real crossroads, in a sense. Hanging out right above making a new low. And this "cycle" has already been different in that it had a double top. Not two peaks, but a second peak just a little above the first. That is unique. If we are to fall from here, then we will never have really had the typical "blow off top". I personally think an 80% decline is hard to imagine in the absence of a blow off top. But who knows?

The positive scenario is we either make a higher low, or we spike lower but still bounce. Then we make a third top. I also think it would make sense for the market to continue to oscillate at a higher frequency and smaller bandwidth. Shorter waves without blow offs and winters. +100% -45% and so on biased to the upside. Perhaps there are still some halfing related effects, but I expect them to reduce.

The above is where my money is.

Is it what I *want* to happen? Well sort of, yes. I would not mind the crazy moon rocket too, but I also would not miss the winters.
Is it what logic and reason makes me think is going to happen avoiding emotion? Sort of, yes. I do think it is a narrative that actually MAKES SENSE. And could be the way things unfold.
Do I feel strongly about it? No.

But here's to trains rockets and Carolina for us all... one way or the other.