Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 08:56:41 AM

Quote from: somac. on Today at 08:46:31 AM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 08:19:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:30:04 AM

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?

[...]

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)

[...]

I would go for (6). I feel that getting above $50k would be enough to swing the short-term trend (and not only the spot price) upwards. Mind you, this does not mean that there won't be a deeper dip before this happens. I will not be surprised if price dips in the high-$20k region. I will start to get a little uncomfortable if it dips any lower, i.e., low-$20k or even high-$10k regions, but I don't expect it to get there so easily. I think Vegeta is dead and disintegrated by now, and no magic can wake him up. Ever.

So, to sum up, my expectations are another dip, maybe low-$30k down to high-$20k, and then slow, ant-sized UPpity movements, with the occasional step-function green dildo jumps, taking price up to the $50k region and beyond. Hopefully, it will never dip below $50k after that. If this gets combined with some good FOMO action and some big players making positive moves towards Bitcoin, I can even see price reaching 6 digits within the year.

It's probably going to be a somewhat slow and long journey, certainly longer that what PlanB's S2F model led many of us to expect, and that's OK, since no one can really predict what's going to happen with absolute certainty in these kinds of non-deterministic systems, at least in the short term, like the time scales we're talking about here. It's a lesson for us all, never to fully trust prediction models, that are essentially curve fits of past data, and expect them to also fit the future. Extrapolation can be deceptive more often than not, and can bite you more often than it can help you. What really matters is the long-term trend, and that is clearly UP. That highlighted sentence is all one needs to know, to not worry about any short-term noise.

tl;dr: HoDL.

I don't think those deeper dips will happen either. STHs do not have the quantity of coins like they did after the 2017 run and going off the illiquid supply they have already sold off a lot of them. To get down to those deeper levels would require LTH selling, and right now we are not getting that, we actually have the opposite. 50k sounds about right to me as well.

Sure, those deeper dips that I mentioned may never happen, and I hope they won't. I just outlined a worst-case scenario that I will not be surprised to see happening. But things can turn out to be much better than this. In any case, I don't think there's anything that can make a hardened LTH sell any amount of corn at these prices. If anything, it's an opportunity to buy and stack more sats, which is something I'm seriously considering lately, even though I feel I have already reached my corn amount target (can this even be said?)!

You can never have too much corn.

I reckon we need an event like march 2020 for a big dip, LTHs did sell that I think, but the only reason they have really sold other than that is because prices went high enough. Of course anything can happen, I just prefer it to be in the up direction.