Quote from: teh_stork on Today at 04:42:30 PM

Right now Antminer S9 in decent condition is available locally. I have some, but considering getting more. I am saving up for a M30S or S17 running somewhere around 40 W/Th. Used S17 prices seems to hover around 55 USD per Th and Whatsminer about 80 USD (but warranty included).

S9 is about 20 USD per Th.

Trying to use braiins insight to make a decision.

Given 2 years investment horizon:
Setup 1:
50 % difficulty increase every year.
50 % price increase every year.
Hodl all.
6c power (2c power. 4c taxes and expenses)(expected to stay at same level in next years)

Scenario 1: Buy 6x S9: 1800 USD
Hashrate: 90 Th
Power: 7200 W

@24 months: 0.211 BTC
Power cost: 7560 USD power cost
Average cost of production 36294 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 7600, IRR =940%

Scenario 2: Buy 1x S17 pro 59th: 3400 USD
Hashrate: 90 Th
Power: 2900 W

@24 months: 0.139 BTC
Power cost: 2424 USD
Average cost of production 17604 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 8800 USD, IRR=490%

Different setup:
Setup 2:
50 % difficulty increase every year.
100 % price increase every year.

Scenario 1 with S9 now :
@24 months: 0.211 BTC
Net profit: 17200 USD, IRR =2000 %

Scenario 2 with S17 pro now:
@24 months: 0.139 BTC
Net profit: 16600 USD, IRR=950 %

Different setup:
Setup 3:
100 % difficulty increase every year.
50 % price increase.

Scenario 1 with S9s now:
@24 months: 0.169 BTC
Power cost: 7560 USD
Average cost of production 50337 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 3700 USD, IRR=640%

Scenario 2 with S17 pro now:
@24 months: 0.111 BTC
Power cost: 2424 USD
Average cost of production 24529 USD per BTC.
Net profit: 6300 USD, IRR=400%

I am planning to invest in mining equipment in the next years, but the prices right now for efficient gear are very high. Will we see another crypto winter? Will bitcoin spike and every piece of old mining gear suddenly be valuable again? Will difficulty growth outpace price growth? If mining becomes tough (and difficulty decreases) and bitcoin price increases - S9 investment will be better than saving for more efficient gear.

What are the best predictions with regard to difficulty development in the short term?

Hmmm no-one knows 24 months from now.

last 13 months we grew 43 % but April 2021 to now we grew 3%

You can try long range numbers for diff growth but it is hard to say in 12 months we will grow 40% or 30 % or 50 %

You can do 3 or 4 guesses for 24 months of diff growth

say 25% 50% and 75%
or 25% 50% 75% and 100%

You can mix your gear as you add it.

add 3 s9 and 1 s17 today

or add 6 s9 and 2 s17 and 1 s19

or add 6 s9 and 2 s17 and pre pay ⅓ for a s19 xp

all cases above are losers unless btc whales.