Quote from: SlipperySlope on March 27, 2014, 03:35:55 AM

Quote from: twiifm on March 27, 2014, 03:15:15 AM

[Are you sure Metcalfes law can used to price an asset class? Isn't it used to describe network effects?

I am not completely sure that Metcalfes law can used to price an asset class.

However, the stunning results posted by gbianchi and Peter R are sufficiently convincing, e.g. the close alignment of the data series in Peter R's graph, make me very interested to see just how the law can indeed apply. Especially considering much headroom the Bitcoin economy has with regard to transaction quantity growth over the next seven years.

You might get a stronger explanation by posting your issue in gbianchi's thread linked earlier.

Yeah I tried reading that thread but the idea of using a formula to price a future is laughable.

BTW I trade options so I know about how options price works and I know quite a bit about technical analysis.

One thing I can say is that most bubble charts have the same shape. If you look at AAPL in 2012 compare it to FB, TSLA, AMZN today. You'll find an uncanny similarity in there shapes. With only a variance of 2-4 weeks. Ive looked at past bubbles like MSFT, YHOO, NOK, CSCO too. They have some resemblance to curent bubbles but slightly different.

Anyways by studying shapes of bubbles I predicted the top of TSLA, FB, NFLX they all crashed this week. I believe AZMN is showing signs of bubble but not the top yet. Same as GOOG

My theory is that bubbles are more technical than fundamental but the similarity is they disconnect from fundamentals and then eventually fundamentals pull them back into alignment.

I don't trade bitcoin so I don't know its chart. But a sign of bubbles is when speculators invest on future market domination. I believe they do this to justify their investment as well as recruiting greater fools so they can exit. To me bitcoin smells exactly like a pump and dump.

IMHO