Quote from: fotosonics on March 27, 2014, 04:40:19 AM

Quote from: deadfi$h on March 27, 2014, 04:20:50 AM

Quote from: fotosonics on March 27, 2014, 04:15:20 AM

I would like to explain the effects of good news vs bad news on the price of bitcoin (how it may convince people to buy or sell or hold):

I will refer to Joseph T. Klapper, who in 1960 wrote of the limited effects model of the media: the media do not have predictable effects. The effects of the media are small and unpredictable. The reception of a message depends on the source (credibility) and topic (preexisting opinion) of a message. The role of the media is to reinforce existing opinions. Confirmation bias. The media are more likely to reinforce opinions than to change them. Political campaigns and ad campaigns will typically find their way to those who are already among the converted.

Think about this carefully when interpreting the effects of news, good or bad.

It's also important to note that although belief in the limited effects theory later declined, to a perspective that the media did have a strong effect, but more nuanced and subtle and difficult to gauge, the general rules about the effects of media on the public still hold true. We consider ourselves opinion leaders, and this being a bull forum, might influence our decisions more than we might care to admit.

The effort to state an absolute fact is simply an attempt to achieve what is humanly impossible. All I can do is give you my interpretation of the facts. - Ivy Lee

If I understand your point, you're saying that this China news only had any effect on the market because mass sentiment is that Bitcoin is vulnerable and this news served to confirm that sentiment?

While that may be true in many cases, this one would have meant a mass sell off of a very large percentage of international exchange funds. In light of that fact, the drop was actually pretty minor and insignificant.

Edit: assuming the drop is over since the news has been debunked.

Sure. I probably should have mentioned the role of the id as well though. We are irrational creatures, and are affected more by emotion than rational information, regardless of what we'd like to believe.

This irrationality is also the main reason, if I can use that word, why I am HODLING.

I must admit there is a lot of passion and belief in holding BTC long term but you rationalise it not to stop being true to your passion

Most successful human traders and all trading posts are mainly taking rational decisions though