Quote from: DaRude on Today at 08:07:43 AM

Quote from: Gyfts on March 02, 2022, 05:24:07 PM

U.S. officials believe Kyiv will fall in 4-6 weeks, with Russia/Ukraine war lasting over a decade.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/russia-ukraine-news-kyiv-war-putin-invasion-talks-today/#post-update-8de46653

With the amount of Ukrainian propaganda floating around, there is this notion that Ukraine is winning this war or even has the potential to win this war. It simply is not true. The Russian military has too many resources to throw away and the economic ramifications does not effect Putin directly. His fragile ego will put his political ambitions over his constituency. So without any input from NATO, this is prolonged losing battle for Ukraine. It seems like Russia has been targeting civilian areas over the last few days, and there are some reports that it might ramp up within the coming weeks. A 10-20 year time line sounds reasonable, and at the end Ukraine might end up being a wasteland like Afghanistan.

Yeah my logic was the same, i thought I was in the bizarro world, everyone was talking as if Ukraine was defeating Russia, all objectivity and critical thinking was gone, blatant propaganda was rampant, only positive coverage of Ukraine, fact checking was non-existent, Russian news/propaganda was getting censored everywhere, echo chambers, and fakes were running wild ("Russian warship, go f*ck yourself" was proven to be fake but I still see people using it). Nothing made sense until i realized it was all psyops. Militarily Ukraine stands no chance, its the poorest, and most corrupt country in Europe (Russia is more corrupt). It appears, best chance Ukraine has is psyops, demoralize Russians to a point where Putin is either taken out, or people revolt and remove him from office. Now i don't say anything on social medias, but i hold this place in higher regard.

As I said on a previous post, a long ugly and costly draw, sucking Putin's foreign currency stores, showing the world that he can be if not beaten, clearly stopped by an army thought inferior (more on this below), an united West and a progressive expulsion from the richest trading countries (yeah, I know... China) is up to a certain point a win for Ukraine.

An major strategic victory for Ukraine would be keeping its access to the Black Sea a large. A decisive strategic victory would be to keep the Donbas, their democratic government, their independence and Putin withdrawing the troops stating it as a "victory" of course.

The Ukrainian army is not small and is not as unprepared as it may look. Defensive positions typically require the attacker to have between 3 to 10 times more resources than the defender. Can Putin divest that amount of men, money and influence without compromising other borders?

Apart from propaganda, my strategic analysis remains: Ukraine can only be defeated as a whole if Ukrainians decide so. My take is that decision would require several years of conventional fighting and then guerrilla fighting. Costly and unpopular... not a despots dream certainly.