Yes, Bitcoin never fell like a rock below its initial lowest price before the halving effect ATH market as you claimed but the market is full of possibilities, and the last time i checked the major investor of this current market is the institution which I believe most of them is yet to understand how crypto market works,
If the market replicates the old market correction/blood bath that always happens after Bitcoin halving effect market is over if the institutional investors panic sells their holding we may see the $10K price.
People are very confident about bitcoin's long term potential and therefore probably $10K will not be touched again after ATH $69K. I just think the bottom may be above $20K if the correction continues for the full year, and I think $20K will be strong support for bitcoin before hitting another ATH in the future.
Institutional investors, bitcoin whales, and panicked traders will quickly sway the price if supply is higher than demand. Obviously it will continue to be a determining factor in the price of bitcoin and in fact we never know what will happen to the future of bitcoin including its price. If you believe in good potential in the future, you just need to collect bitcoins now and whenever you can.
I agreed with what you said about Bitcoin experiencing strong support if it happens that it downtrend to $20K but I think we should be happy for the institutional investor enthusiasm level about the Bitcoin market which prevents the market from experiencing the huge market correction that always happens after the halving market.
Having said that, we're talking about the crypto market here where the impossible can help and a single statement by the FED could lead to the exit of the institutional investor.