Quote from: dmwardjr on Today at 03:49:15 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:45:56 AM

Quote from: Copetech on Today at 01:57:17 AM

Quote from: Toxic2040 on Today at 01:47:31 AM

3D thoughts

stronghands

I don't like greasy goose poop!!!

(This coming from the new kid, still FOMOing into every dip like dinner tonight is optional)

How could you be FOMOing into BTC price dips? You are just two months short of your one-year anniversary in these here parts.

In my thinking, the more that you grapple with a several BTC price moves over many months while you are attempting to establish and to follow some kind of BTC accumulation system, then the more that you should have some structure to your buys.. even if you are trying to be strategic in terms of buying on dips.

If the BTC price were to go down to $25k, would you have any dry powder left to buy? How about down to $20k.. yet that would be an extreme that many folks here seem to consider to be quite low currently... but not impossible?

Hi JJG,

I agree with you! And when we look at the 17-Day time frame using Phoenix Ascending and Bad Ass B-Bands indicators, we see we still have quite a bit or work to do with the Red RSI and Blue LSMA in order to get our freak on with another bull run again.

Right now, the Blue LSMA appears it may continue falling even lower than level 30. The issue with that is we need the Blue LSMA to rise above Level 30 to have greater odds of the price action rising up from the B-Band Basis to the area of the white/aqua UPPER B-Bands. We also need the Red RSI to run up to or near Level 50 so that the price action has increased odds of REMAINING somewhere pretty close to the B-Band Basis; which can be seen to the left in history. The Red RSI is currently at Level 29 and has quite a bit of work to do in order for us to get up to Level 50 to increase the odds of the price at least holding around the B-Band Basis.

There's a chance we might fall further in similar fashion to what we saw late November/early December of 2014 (identified with an Aqua Vertical Dashed Time Line at "20-Nov-14"). Meaning, it's possible we might see the Present Day Green RSI turn back down in similar fashion to the Green RSI turning back down in 2014. Possibly the next candle. However, the next 17-Day candle begins approximately 9-Days and 21-hours from now.

This is better understood if "seen" rather than simply reading it. Even better if explained in a video. I cannot post images. I don't know why. It's as if I'm banned from posting images on here now. At least you have a link to the image.

Here's the link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KWYUfkUT/

Of course, I rely less on the various technical analysis lines.. and largely we have already had a couple of more than 50% corrections this year.. and our blow off top might be described 7x at best.. so in some sense, it seems to me that buy support would have had opportunities to catch up to current prices.. and even a dip down to $20k I would suggest as having 10% or lower odds.. and of course the odds of dipping below $30k would be quite a bit higher.. maybe even in the 50% arena.

There are various ongoing developments in bitcoin that may well cause scenarios like 2014 to be way less likely to play out.. I mean we were stuck at $400 for a while and then get stuck in the mid to lower $200s for almost the whole of 2015.. similarly when people suggest that we could get something like 2018 where we dipped from $6k to $3k.. but then we were only in the $3ks for about 4 months.. until that April to June 2019 BTC price surge (temporary as it was, it ended our bearslump quite decisively).

So currently going down to any such lower price and then being able to stay there would likely take some pretty extreme circumstances.. and probably there would be some need to get to lower $30ks first and to potentially challenge buy supprt in the lower $30ks.. and there seems to be trouble getting down there.. at least so far....

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 04:17:32 AM

Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024.
I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025?
Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too.

To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years.
The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'.

Let me see if I understand what you are saying in the above bolded part.

You are suggesting that currently we have around 100 million bitcoin users, and in the next 4-5 years we are largely going to 10x our number of users.. which of course has inevitable UPpity pressures on the BTC price, right?

Regarding whether the stock to flow model is "on-track" of course there is ongoing plotting of the data.. and surely some folks will find such model useful and others will not, and I really doubt that the extent to which the model is valid, useful or informative regarding likely BTC direction would be subject to a popularity contest - even though you likely already realize that I am not too patient with guys who seem to completely ignore such model and spin their own models that seems to be based on loose data at best and.. which seem to be like throwing darts at a board.

Quote from: Uang_kartal on Today at 04:26:58 AM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 04:17:32 AM

Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024.
I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025?
Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too.

To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years.
The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'.

I agree, bro, maybe more than 4 years in the future will approach that price, past $70000/unit, and there should be no worries for me to take the price that is rising.

$70k is noise.. For the most part, we have already been there twice.

Quote from: Uang_kartal on Today at 04:26:58 AM

What @cAPSLOCK said also made people ask questions ask, it's not too bad and not too low from the years before bitcoin/cryptocurency soared so worshiped. I believe the owner of the blockchain (btc) will have a surprise for the survival of the community, I'm sure it will be fine, this hypothesis makes sense bro

You might be phrasing matters weirdly based on English as a second language or using a translator (google translator?) but your describing the "owner of the blockchain/bitcoin" is a weird framework - especially since bitcoin seems to be amongst the least owned of systems.. and bitcoin's lack of ownership seems to be its appeal... and I am not sure why you want to use the word bitcoin and blockchain in the same sentence.. there is no need to talk about blockchain at all, unless you are wanting to suggest that there are some other systems that matter, besides bitcoin.. are you referring to that, or you just did not feel comfortable with ONLY using the word bitcoin when you were referring to bitcoin, right? In other words, the concept of blockchain is kind of meaningless because it leads into ambiguity and maybe even causes questions about whether you are talking about bitcoin or something else?