https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60916098Russia has announced it will "drastically reduce" military combat operations in two key areas of Ukraine "to boost mutual trust" in peace talks.
[...]
Officials in Washington said they had already seen the Russians draw away from Kyiv, but they were still pounding the capital with air strikes and the US had little confidence that it marked any significant shift or meaningful retreat.
"mutual trust" my ass. Russian forces have been stalled there for a month with and Ukrainians started to counterattack.
The decrease in the intensity of the operation near Chernigov and Kiev began two days ago, today it was presented as a gesture of goodwill on the part of Russia. I think everything is more prosaic - the main goal now is to clean up Mariupol and defeat the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass. After the defeat of the Ukrainian regular army in the east, Russia will probably take a short pause to force peace negotiations, simultaneously moving to Nikolaevsk and Odessa and threatening to completely deprive Ukraine of access to the sea (even the loss of Mariupol in this regard is very painful for Ukraine). If it is possible to conclude a peace treaty, all nationalist detachments in the West of Ukraine will turn into ordinary terrorist gangs, which in fact they are. If a peace treaty is not signed on terms acceptable to Russia, the operation will continue, but in the West there will be much less loyalty and desire of Russian soldiers to save the lives of civilians. There, the main task will be to save the lives of Russian soldiers to the maximum, so artillery and aviation will work more. This is my vision of the development of the situation as the most likely scenario.
The current proposals of the Ukrainian side in the negotiations are unrealistic and even close to unacceptable for Russia. There will be no second Khasavyurt or new Minsk agreements.
I would be surprised Putin would cave in and accept stronger than the Article 5 security guarantees.
Ukraine knows they don't need NATO to defend themselves. They need arms.
Putin wants Ukraine territory but without anti-Russia resistance, i.e. without Ukrainians. And he wants it to be annexed to Russia.
I am afraid this war will go on until the last Ukrainian (or his children and grandchildren) are alive or until the last Russian occupier
or their supporter leaves Ukraine (Donbas/Luhansk and Crimea).
Until then, it will be an open hunting season on Russian occupiers, supporters, and collaborators.
If they reach an agreement, it will be temporary, I am afraid.
Lasting peace can only be reached when one side wins or loses.
The Mongols have been raiding Kievan Rus for hundreds of years. This is just another attempt. Nothing new here.
Seems like Russia is doing divide and conquer. No way it can take Kyiv with <200k troops much less west Ukraine. Looks like now they're just taking out UA mech units and going after fuel reserves. Then they can concentrate on everything east of Dnieper river one at a time, without worrying about reinforcements coming in from the west. It's not how you start a war, but how you adapt to it. As far as duration of the war, Ukraine's
. Think everyone knows how Ukraine managed to supply their military from 0 to like 101 in under 8yrs, seen UA fighters with $40k thermal scopes, and overall better personal equipment than RU. Wars are expensive, people don't live on positive tweets, and tanks don't run on flag avatars. Once great powers come to agreement, funding and war will stop, people will move on with their lives, not much use to hold grudges and
after that.