It would be a good time for powerful Finland to reclaim Karelia, Salla and Petsamo from Russia, this would be a one day operation.
Japan should also reclaim their Kuril Islands whilst Russia is busy elsewhere, although their constitution forbids using military force to settle disputes.
Japan won't move a finger IMO. They are awaiting instructions from the USA, whose words are still "Watch the seas, contain China. Guard Taiwan. It used to be yours after all."
As for Russia, the Kaliningrad oblast would hurt the most.
It could be split between Poland and Lithuania.
It is allegedly an ice-free port. Warm water ports are what Russia really, really wants and needs. The Ukraine raids themselves started with Crimea 8 years ago.